In the past two years:
That’s a picture from my hotel room, right after Sweden asked to join NATO. Just a few months after Russia’s expanded invasion of Ukraine (reminder – the invasion began in 2014).
Now. Response from Politico:
Russia’s Defense Ministry announced plans on Tuesday to expand the country’s territorial waters in the Baltic Sea near its maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland, raising concerns in other countries.
“I am sure that Putin has both eyes on Gotland. “Putin’s aim is to gain control over the Baltic Sea,” Bydén, Sweden’s top military commander, told the newspaper of the German editorial organization RND.
Two Hundred Years Ago. Now, the Ministry of Defense has withdrawn the announcement of the joint change in the borders, without explanation. Is there any chance that Russia will ever try to take over this island? Well, look back a few hundred years ago:
Source: Encyclopedia Britannica, accessed 5/22/2024. Edited by the author: Gotland was circled in orange.
On this Russian map, Gotland (circled) is not included. This is because it only reaches 1801. In 1808, Russia took Gotland, so the answer is “yes”.
Now, Russian forces are fully committed to the war in Ukraine. Back in 2021, CSIS assessed a successful naval attack as unlikely. That was pre-NATO Sweden, so it would seem a lot smaller. However, if Russia was able to win in Ukraine, due to the infidelity of the West (or MAGA supineness), then Sweden against a brave Russia could go well. Those who remember history will remember that the surrender of the Sudetenland did not go well.
I might note that although modern Sweden was never part of Russia, the eastern part of Sweden (then the Grand Duchy of Finland) was ceded to Russia and given independence (1809-1917).
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