Yves here. We’ve got yet another interesting sight on the global warming scene, in the form of an update on Thwaites Glacier.
Written by Thomas Neuburger. It was first published in the book God’s Spies
Location of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica (source)
Thwaites Glacier, a glacier the size of Florida on the West coast of Antarctica, has been called the “doomsday glacier” because of its destructive potential.
Jump to the 2:29 minute mark to see a glimpse of the cutting action.
“How quickly that happens is a hot debate” says the narrator at 3:33. That was in 2020. No more.
‘It will take decades, not centuries’
From CNN on May 21 (via the excellent weather news aggregator, Collapse Chronicle):
Sea water runs for miles under the ‘Doomsday Glacier’ which has a major impact on sea level rise
…Thwaites, which already contributes 4% to global sea level rise, holds enough ice to raise sea levels by more than 2 feet. But because it also acts as a natural reservoir for the surrounding ice in West Antarctica, scientists estimate its complete collapse could lead to a 10-metre rise in sea levels – a disaster for the world’s coastal communities.
Many studies have pointed to the high vulnerability of Thwaites. Global warming, driven by humans burning fossil fuels, has left it hanging “by its claws,” according to a 2022 study.
CNN does not link to research. The UC Irvine announcement is here. The paper itself is there.
Lead author, Eric Rignot, was quoted as saying, “The numbers will go up… [The collapse] it will take decades, not centuries. Part of the answer also depends on whether the weather stays hot or not”.
Needless to say, the weather continues to heat up. And don’t trust the word “many.” He tries not to scare you too much.
Our Bet on the Future
No one is saying this will happen soon. “Decades” is not yet next year. But global ocean temperatures are setting new records, and at a rapid pace.
As you can imagine, there is something strange about this, especially for scientists (see also here and here) rather than those who owe their lives to the moneyed class.
“How many decades” could all this be? My money is on two or three, mid 2050s.
Global Sea Level Rise vs. Sea Levels Near You
But whatever the time scale of Thwaites’ complete downfall, the change that will be brought about will not be smooth, but sudden, in stages. If a piece of ice the size of Florida that is not submerged in water suddenly falls into the ocean, it will raise the global sea level – alone – by two feet.
And that increase will not be well distributed. Seas near New York, for example, will rise 1½ times the global average:
The Thwaites fall, when they arrive, they will change everything. And the collapse of the Western Antarctic, which follows that, will put the icing on the cake. The first could come in the next twenty years or so – remember, everything is accelerating.
Second … well, when that comes it may not matter at all, given how scratchy our eggs will be by then.
The solution
The solution, of course, is action of the “strong” kind. The State knows this better than most. That’s why he’s been preparing. We’ll look into that soon.
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