Atlanta and NY Fed lower Q2 growth rates
Figure 1: GDP as reported (bright black), GDPNow (blue square) , NY Fed (pink triangle), Survey of Professional Forecasts May median (light green line), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA (2024Q1 2nd release), Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
First, the rate reported using GDPNow is below the May SPF, the result of a lower Q1 GDP revision and slower growth now.
The downward motion in the nowcasts is pronounced. Consider GDPNow.
Source: Atlanta Fed, accessed June 3, 2024.
A negative surprise in construction and manufacturing ISM was the biggest mover – from 2.7% to 1.8% q/q SAAR in GDPNow. Trailing Goldman Sachs was down only 0.1 ppts by comparison.
That being said, no recession is evident in the Q2 nowcasts yet. Or in April’s monthly guide (see here).
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