Yves here. That Modi’s poor performance in India’s recent elections was due to poor responses from opposition parties that successfully mobilized on class issues makes perfect sense…to outsiders. Can those who know Indian politics comment on whether this analysis is accurate, or a gross understatement?
By Priya Chacko, Associate Professor, International Politics, University of Adelaide and Anand Sreekumar, PhD candidate, University of Adelaide. Originally published on The Conversation
This year’s general election in India has arguably raised more questions about the fairness of the electoral process than any other in the country’s history.
For example, in December, a bill was passed in the Indian parliament that allowed election commissioners to be appointed by an executive branch, which many feared would jeopardize free and fair elections.
And during the campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made several speeches that were widely seen as Islamophobic, in which he accused the opposition Congress Party of favoring Muslims. The Election Commission has failed to adequately enforce the Model Code of Conduct when it comes to these comments.
Opposition chief ministers Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Hemant Soren of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), meanwhile, have been arrested on corruption charges. Both parties said the cases were politically motivated.
One of the lessons learned from the election is that even if there are questions about how the vote is free and fair, the opposition parties can push the dominance of the ruling parties.
In the Indian elections, the opposition presented unity and stuck to a consistent message that reflected some issues of voter discontent.
Why Racial Politics Was So Important
Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party did not perform as well as expected in the election, losing heavily in its northern Indian states. Modi began a six-week election campaign claiming that his party would win more than 400 seats. In the end, it was reduced to 240 seats, while the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) got 232 seats.
INDIA had a shaky start to the polls. A founding member, the Janata Dal, joined Modi’s coalition earlier this year. INDIA also failed to reach a seat-sharing agreement with another member, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), although that party remained part of the coalition.
However, as the campaign progressed, the BJP’s attacks on the opposition led to a more unified, more divisive focus.
Indian society and politics are divided by its caste system. It has roots in ancient religious texts, which grant symbolic and material rights to people based on their membership of a particular class.
Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi’s speeches highlighted his commitment to protecting the Constitution and addressing caste-based injustice in India. He pledged to carry out a census by caste to reveal the level of deprivation and wealth accumulation in society.
He also pointed out that the government is consolidating power, as well as Modi’s praise in the media and his indifference to the issues of unemployment and inflation.
Lalu Prasad Yadav, leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which is also part of the INDIA coalition, has warned the BJP that it intends to amend the Constitution to end caste-based affirmative action. Although Modi has denied this, these allegations seem to be ignoring the voters.
The big issue for me in this election is that INDIA parties made huge gains in Dalit and rural constituencies while NDA retained urban and elite constituencies. it tells you everything, really pic.twitter.com/9DcqLlIRow
– Mohit (@mohiittverma) June 4, 2024
Caste has presented a problem for Modi’s Hindu nationalist politics, which glorifies the practices and behavior of upper-caste Hindus, while relying on the support of the majority of the lower caste to win elections.
The BJP sought to alleviate this situation by promoting welfare programs and accused the secular opposition of working with Muslims to dispossess the poor of the lower caste Hindus.
Before the election, Modi also said that traditional forms of caste were replaced by new social “beneficiaries” – women, farmers, youth and the poor.
In fact, government welfare programs included small cash transfers, small loans, food rations and subsidies for private goods such as housing, which sought to compensate for income inefficiency and unemployment. Spending on health and education by the Modi government, which could have had transformative effects on society, has ended.
The BJP’s infrastructure-driven economic program has benefited large corporations, leading to the suspicion of small capitalists. It has also failed to attract significant foreign investment or to expand the manufacturing sector to create more jobs.
Over the past decade – but especially following the COVID pandemic – India has also become one of the most unequal countries in the world. Women, Dalits, Adivasis and Muslims have faced the worst.
Dalit Politicians Have Also Grown in Prominence
Perhaps the biggest surprise for the BJP was its biggest loss in its home state, Uttar Pradesh.
The Samajwadi Party (SP) earlier dominated Uttar Pradesh politics by championing the interests of the lower caste “other backward classes”. This tactic, however, caused resentment among some lower castes, which the BJP exploited to gain power in 2017.
In this election, the SP seems to have formed a new, broad alliance.
This election also saw new changes in Dalit politics, the lowest rung of the caste system in India. In Uttar Pradesh, new Dalit political parties began to emerge, such as the Azad party led by Chandra Sekhar Azad.
In the south, the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) consolidated its status as the largest Dalit party in Tamil Nadu, winning all the seats it contested.
The Future of Indian Democracy
Indian democracy is not out of the woods yet. Activists, students, political leaders and journalists are still under arrest.
The Hindu nationalist movement has a history of inciting communal violence when things don’t go their way in the electoral arena.
The Modi government also started extending media censorship during the election.
There is little to suggest that Modi will temper what many see as authoritarian tendencies, but there is now plenty of resistance, skepticism and other political alternatives that will hopefully help India’s democratic recovery.