Here is a snapshot of Fed funds before and after the release of the CPI/FOMC SEP:
Source: CME accessed 6/12/2024, 1:30pm.
Before the news, the implied decline in 2024 was 35 bps, now 39 bps. How many drops? Using modal possibilities:
Source: CME accessed 6/12/2024, 1:30pm.
Two bps drop before, two drops after news.
The current analysis emphasizes that it is a close balance between one and two cuts in SEP (see SEP here).
Market expectations (ie, ex ante measures) are important for behavior. Which one will turn out to be more accurate in terms of prediction. This issue is discussed in Carpinelli et al. (2024).
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