Industrial production surprises edged up (0.9% vs. 0.3% m/m), while retail sales rose slightly (0.1 actual vs. 0.3% consensus).
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) from CES (blue), employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bright green), trade and sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (green bars), all log normalized to to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 second release, S&P Global Market Insights (with Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (6/1/2024), and author’s calculations.
Retail sales:
Figure 2: Sales, mn $/month (blue, left scale), and mn 1999M12$/month (tan, right scale). It is deflated using the seasonally bound CPI by the author using X-13. Source: Census, BLS, author’s calculations.
Core sales fell 0.1% compared to consensus +0.2%.
Treasury yields fell significantly, due to a cooler than expected sales number.
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