What will India look like in 2047? Combining economic growth projections with output elasticity estimates for growth, Karthik Muralidharan in. Accelerating India’s development reports:
Even with a strong per capita GDP of 6 percent, projections for the year 2047 paint a sobering picture if we maintain our current course. Although India’s infant mortality is expected to halve from 27 per 1000 births to 13 by 2047, it will still be higher than China’s current average of 8. A 30 percent reduction in about 25 years. In rural India, 16 percent of children in class 5 will not be able to read at the level of Class 2, and 55 percent of them will not be able to distinguish at the level of Class 3.
Remember that this means a 6% growth rate in GDP per capita. What is more telling is that if growth increases to 8%, child mortality will only decrease to 10% (instead of 13%). The growth is huge. It is one very important thing but not everything. If India can double the elasticity of child mortality in relation to growth, for example, the 6% infant growth rate will drop to just 6% by 2047–that means millions of lives saved. Muralidharan’s biggest controversy Accelerate India’s Development that India can get further development from the same level of growth by increasing the gross domestic product of the state.
There are many “big think” books on growth—Landes’ Wealth and Poverty of Nations, Acemoglu and Robinson’s The Narrow Corridor, Koyama and Rubin’s How the World Became Rich—but these books are historical and descriptive. Big think books don’t tell you How to develop. Creating institutions for a “delicate and precarious balance between state and society” is not a great indicator of development. Accelerated Development in India is different.
“The Acceleration” begins with two excellent chapters on the political economy of politicians and bureaucrats, explaining the constraints or any reforms to be achieved. It concludes with two chapters on the future, including ideas such as ranked-choice voting, representing its ambitions. It is within the constraints and ambitions, however, that Accelerating India’s Development is unique. There is no other book that I know of that provides such a detailed examination, analysis, and comprehensive evaluation and assessment of the country’s institutions and processes.
Muralidharan’s recommendations are often based on his twenty years of research, especially in education, health and social care, and if not based on his research Muralidharan has read everyone and everything. However, he does not offer a laundry list but offers well-thought-out, considered recommendations based on political and economic facts.
To give just one example, management in India is highly paid compared to India’s GDP per capita or wages in the private sector. Since salaries are very high, bureaucracy is very small–a sign of concentrated benefits (salaries for civil servants), a problem of distribution of costs (delivery of services to citizens). Cutting wages for government workers is a non-starter but Muralidharan argues that it is possible to hire new workers from local communities with existing wages on renewable contracts. The Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS), for example, is India’s primary program for delivering early childhood education. There are 1.35 million anganwadi centers (AWCs) across India and usually one anganwadi worker is responsible for both nutrition and pre-school education but spends most of his time writing papers!
A simple, risk-free way to improve early childhood education is to add a second worker to AWCs to focus on preschool education….In a recent study, my co-authors found that adding additional, locally employed, early childhood care and education facilitators to anganwadis in Tamil Nadu doubled the time of daily kindergarten instruction…we found significant gains in students’ math, language and management skills. We also found a significant reduction in child disability and malnutrition…We estimate that the social benefit of this investment was about thirteen times the cost….the ECCE facilitators usually only had Class 10 or Class 12 and received only one week of training, and they were still working a lot.
An example shows Muralidharan’s methods. First, the recommendation is based on a large, reliable, multi-year study conducted in India in collaboration with the government of Tamil Nadu. Second, the study is chosen for this book because it is in line with Muralidharan’s great analysis of India’s problems, India has very few government employees which leads to high profits, yet the workers are paid a lot of money so this profit is not financially feasible. But hiring more workers at the margins, at prevailing wages in India, is possible. India has a large well-educated workforce so the program can scale—this is not a study about adding AI-driven computers to Delhi schools under the management of IIT-trained teachers, the program will be under heroes not a recurring problem. . This program can also be done politically because it leaves rent and by hiring a lot of workers, even if they earn less, it builds its own political support. Finally, note that India’s ICDS is the largest early childhood development program in the world so improving it has the potential to improve the lives of millions. That is why I have called Muralidharan the most important economist in the world.
One of the reasons why land capacity in India is so low is premature loading. Imagine if the 19th century US government had tried to manage everything that the modern US government does—this is the situation in India. Where Regional Powers/Activities In early acting, Rajagopalan and I advocate a reduction in Tasks–an idea best represented by Ed Glaeser’s words that “A country that can’t provide its citizens with clean water should not be in the business of controlling the film’s dialogue.” Accelerating India’s Development is focused on increasing Regional Power but without going against the market. In fact, Muralidharan proposes to make the state more efficient by developing markets more.
Indian policy should prioritize increasing the supply of high-quality service providers, whether in the public or private sector.
So, Muraldiharan wants to build on India’s remarkably effective private schools and private health care with ideas like vouchers and private rates. It’s free to choose but it’s free to choose from an information-rich environment. My inclination would be to push markets and infrastructure further – we still need to get to that 6% growth! But I have a few reservations about what’s in the book.
Accelerating India’s development is a uniquely rich and insightful book. Its comprehensive analysis and recommendations for innovation make it an invaluable resource. I will undoubtedly refer to it in future discussions and posts. This book is a must read for anyone interested in understanding and improving life in the world’s largest democracy.
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