With the release of Q1 3rd, and GDP+, we have the following picture (in levels):
Figure 1: Reported GDP (bold black), GDO (blue), GDP+ (tan), final sales (blue), CBO June projection (red), and GDPNow (27 June), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. The GDP+ rate is a multiple of the 2019Q4 reported GDP rate. Source: BEA 2024Q1 third release via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, CBO (June), and author’s calculations.
Reported GDP is significantly higher than GDO or GDP+ (1.1% and 0.9% respectively), but the growth rates are not significantly different. GDPNow tracks CBO projections for June (based on data from early May).
Final sales are a measure of aggregate demand; this rate keeps pace.
It is easy to see some of these trends in growth rates.
RULE 2: Quarter-by-quarter annual growth rate of reported GDP (bold black), GDO (blue), GDP+ (tan), final sales (blue), CBO June GDP projection (red), and GDPNow (June 27). Growth rates were calculated as the first log difference. Source: BEA 2024Q1 third release via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, CBO (June), and author’s calculations.
What is also true is that all measures decreased in Q1, with GDP and GDO growth rates flat.
On a higher frequency, we have a slight acceleration, as the Lewis-Mertens-Stock/NY Fed WEI reads at 2.53% (data on 6/22), while the Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims is at -0.16% (ie, – 0.16% below trend growth)
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