PCE inflation slightly below consensus (+ 0.2% vs. + 0.3%). Here are some key business cycle indicators tracked by the NBER BCDC, with an actual flat rate of personal money transfers (and actual consumption)
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) from CES (blue), employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bright green), trade and sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (green bars), all log normalized to to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release, S&P Global Market Insights (probably Macroeconomic Advisors, IHS Markit) (6/1/2024), and author’s calculations.
The GDPNow estimate for Q2 as of today is 2.2%, down from 2.7% yesterday.
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