That is Mr. Trump on inflation. Here is the data:
Figure 1: CPI for household consumption (blue), chained (tan), both in wood, 2021M01=0. The chained CPI is seasonally adjusted by the author using X-13. The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Source: BLS and author’s calculations.
The graph above shows the true number (admittedly, government statistics, rather than Trumpian anecdotes) is far less than four times that.
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