NFP at +206K vs +191K.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) from CES (blue), employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bright green), trade and sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (green bars), all log normalized to to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release, S&P Global Market Insights (probably Macroeconomic Advisors, IHS Markit) (7/1/2024), and author’s calculations.
There are questions that the CES greatly overestimates employment growth, perhaps because of the birth-death model. Here is the cumulative growth of private NFP from March 2023 (last estimated data), compared to the ADP series (not based on the model of birth deaths).
Figure 2: Private non-farm employment from BLS (blue), and ADP (tan), for logs 2023M03=0. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.
Here is the three-month growth rate (annualized) for these two series.
Figure 3: The three-month growth rate of private nonfarm employment from BLS (blue), and from ADP (tan), calculated as the log difference. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.
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