Apparently it has happened, and it has been accelerated and publicized by the mistakes of Biden and the attempted assassination of Trump. But it continued. If you need a single, unmistakable sign of it, I can quote MSNBC taking off Morning Joe this morning, for fear they’ll say something bad about Trump.
Another way to put it is that Trump was a very vulnerable president, a loser, facing numerous lawsuits and having an actual criminal record. However, he is now the favorite for the next election. Conceptually, how does that actually happen?
I thought it would be a good test of understanding to ask people why they think the vibes have changed, and then rate their answers for wisdom, insight, and intellectual honesty.
For example, I used to read people arguing that “Trump is popular because of racism,” but now that idea is clearly debunked, even if you think (as I do) that racism has little to do with his support. Or some people say that this development has exposed “polarization.” Whether you agree or disagree with the polarization thesis, begs the question here, as we can be separated from Trump as the underdog.
In any case, I thought I should start this process by giving my answers. Here they are, in bullet point series:
1. Trump and his team understand that we now live in a social media world. Only a small portion of the Democratic party has achieved the same.
2. The “Trumpian Right,” whether you agree with it or not, has been more intellectually alive and important than the Progressive Left, at least for the last five years, maybe more. By going full out, those people were more free to be creative, noting that I don’t equate creativity with goodness.
3. The deindustrialization of America is more important than people initially expected, and it has had long legs, in terms of its impact on public opinion. I would say that this is a general account of the matter.
4. Many Trumpian and MAGA messages have been very much in the vibe of the negative effects of the contagion of our recent times.
5. Democrats made a big bet that trying to raise the bar for blacks would be popular, but at best they had mixed results. Part of this failure was due to racism, part because of immigrants with their own concerns, and part simply because the message was not popular.
6. The ongoing feminization of society has driven many men, including black and Latino men, into the Republican camp. The Democratic Party has become the largest group of single women.
7. The Obama administration has brought, to some extent, both the reality and the perception of intellectual class rule. People didn’t like that.
8. Democrats and leftists are actually not as happy as the general public, on average. Americans have seen this, if only unconsciously.
9. The Democrats’ constant message of equality is not that popular, and moreover – as each claim must have delegates – it translates live into the “I’m better than you all” vibe. Americans have seen this, if only unconsciously.
10. The Woke gambit proved to be very unpopular.
11. Trans support has not been a winning issue for Democrats, but it’s hard for them to let go.
12. Immigration at the border is essentially out of control, and that has been a central issue for Trump since the beginning of his campaign. And I’m writing this as a big fan of immigrants. You can imagine how people who are skeptical of immigrants feel.
13. Higher education has been, and remains, a center of democracy. However its power and reliability have declined significantly over the past few years.
14. Democrats are making a big mistake by going after “Big Tech.” They did not call for more votes, rather money and public funds. Big Tech (especially Facebook) was the Girardian sacrifice of Trump’s 2016 victory, and all the Democrats gained from that was the alienation of their elite base.
15. Various events in Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Israel have not helped the cause of the Democratic Alliance. Inflation was very high, and real borrowing levels were very high. This is true, whether you think it’s Biden’s fault, or whether Trump could have done better. Crypto was attacked. The issue of the pandemic is complex, and the politics of it may require its own post, but I don’t think it helped the Democrats, especially since they end up “owning” most of the prolonged school closures.
16. In simple terms, you can say that the Democrats have done a lot to make themselves unpopular, and they haven’t been very willing to deal with it. Their personal messages make it difficult to deal with this, because they should be better people.
You can add to this:
17. Trump is funny (he’s one of America’s greatest comedians in fact), too
18. Trump acts like a winner. Americans like these, and his response to the failed assassination attempt drove the point home.
19. Biden’s recent troubles, and the realization that he and his team have been running at least as big a race as Trump’s. It has become a matter of trust, not just age or a cognitive problem.
On the other side of the spectrum, you might argue, as many smart people do, that Democrats are better at technocracy, and that Democrats have more respect for traditional political processes, especially post-election reform. I’m not here to argue about those issues! I know many MAGA fans are not convinced, especially at the end. I’ll just note that, in the minds of most Americans, those factors are no more than #1-19.
And where you are going.
Addendum: Of course there was and is a lot wrong with Trump and the Trump administration. But the point here isn’t to compare Biden to Trump, but rather to see why Democrats aren’t doing better. If your answer to that question is to cite reasons why Democrats are better than Trump… well you are part of the problem.
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