The economics of GLP-1 – The Marginal REVOLUTION

Answer from Frank Fuhrig:

Protein shakes “emerged as the big winner” on supermarket shelves among consumers who took the new popular weight-loss drug, according to a report using consumer surveys.

The data analysis company Grocery Doppio “Digital Food Performance Scorecard: H1 2024” found reduced grocery consumption among 97% of consumers who took GLP-1 medications – glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, including drugs of semaglutide Ozempic, Rybelsus, prescribed for diabetes or obesity.

Their grocery bills dropped by an average of 11%, yet they spent 27% more on lean protein from lean meats, eggs and seafood. Other gains were meal replacements (19%), healthy snacks (17%), fruit and vegetables (13%) and sports and energy drinks (7%).

Snacks and soda took the brunt of the reduction in consumer spending after GLP-1 treatment: snacks and confectionery (-52%), baked goods (-47%), soda/sweetened beverages (-28%) , alcoholic beverages (-17). %) and processed foods (-13%).

In a survey of American grocers, 77% said they would respond to the rapidly spreading trend among drug users by expanding and deepening assortments including portion control and packaging. Another 71% say they will increase digital marketing efforts in health and “food as medicine.”

Past diets such as low-carb keto plans have also favored low protein. A Rabobank research report in March examined the dietary benefits of focusing more on lean protein and suggested that the industry could reformulate highly processed foods to increase protein and fight obesity.

Despite the rapid adoption of GLP-1 drugs, grocery sales in January to June 2024 reached $458 billion, up 3.8% compared to the first half of last year, the report showed.

Here’s a gated link, via J. I wonder if the behavior of later adopters will be different. There is, after all, another measure where people just eat a lot of ice cream, knowing they can do so and still lose weight.


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