The latest forecasts show no recession, Q2 nowcasts suggested (GDPNow, NY Fed), weekly indicators (Lewis, Mertens, Stock; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims) growth rates, and both NBER BCDC and other indicators positive indicators. growth.
Figure 1: First benchmark Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) (bright blue), employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates (orange), manufacturing output (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bright green), sales and marketing in Ch. .2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (green bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2024Q1 third release, S&P Global Market Insights (macroeconomic advisors, IHS Markit) (7/1/2024), and author’s calculations.
Note that the adjusted resident employment series ends because immigration is assumed to be the same as that included in the BLS series beginning in July 2023.
Compare with NBER BCDC indicators.
Figure 2: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) from CES (blue), employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bright green), trade and sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (green bars), all log normalized to to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release, S&P Global Market Insights (probably Macroeconomic Advisors, IHS Markit) (7/1/2024), and author’s calculations.
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