By Eva Vivalt, Elizabeth Rhodes, Alexander W. Bartik, David E. Broockman, Sarah Miller, the link should be on the NBER site by the time this post is finished, but I’m still behind. Here is the abstract:
We study the causal effects of income on a rich range of employment outcomes, using an experiment in which 1,000 low-income individuals were randomly assigned to receive $1,000 per month unconditionally for three years, with a control group of 2,000 participants receiving $50/month. We collect detailed survey data, administrative records, and data from a custom mobile application. Transfers caused total personal income to decrease by approximately $1,500/year compared to the control group, without transfers. The program resulted in a 2.0 percent decrease in participants’ labor market participation and a 1.3-1.4 hour reduction in weekly working hours, with participants’ partners reducing their hours worked by a comparable amount. Transfers caused the largest increase in time spent on leisure, and a smaller increase in time spent on other activities such as transportation and finance. Despite asking detailed questions about resources, we find no impact on the quality of work, and our confidence intervals can yield even small improvements. We do not see significant effects on investment in the workforce, although younger participants may pursue more formal education. Overall, our results suggest a moderate labor supply effect that does not appear to be suppressed by other productive activities.
This is the largest and most comprehensive RCT of its kind on this issue, and the results are overwhelmingly positive.
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