Summary from July:
Figure 1: IU. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FRED series UMCSENT) (blue), Conference Board Confidence (tan), SF Fed News Sentiment index (green), all level. The emotion of July is first; July news sentiment through July 21. The NBER has defined recession days that are higher than gray. U.Michigan via FRED, Conference Board, SF Fed, NBER and author figures.
Using the UMCSENT regression on news sentiment in the above sample period (Adj. R2 = 0.41), the observation (first) of July is 7 points below the actual, about 2 standard errors from the forecast.
Source link