Business Cycle Indicators End of July

Nominal consumption, PCE deflator m/m consensus, income +0.2% vs. + 0.4%. Here is a snapshot of the NBER BCDC key indicators and monthly GDP:

Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) from CES (blue), employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bright green), trade and sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (green bars), all log normalized to to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release, S&P Global Market Insights (probably Macroeconomic Advisors, IHS Markit) (7/1/2024), and author’s calculations.

This entry was posted in with Menzies Chinn.


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