Markets in Everything: Fentanyl Precursors

Reuters: In order to learn how this global industry works, journalists have bought several precursors over the past year. Although a few sales turned out to be fraudulent, the journalists managed to buy 12 chemicals that can be used to make fentanyl, according to independent pharmacists contacted by Reuters. Most of the goods arrived as seamlessly as any other mail order package. The team also purchased secondary ingredients used to process key precursors, as well as basic equipment – providing everything needed to produce fentanyl.

The main precursors that Reuters bought would have produced enough fentanyl powder to make at least 3 million pills, with a potential value of up to $3 million – an estimate based on prices cited by US law enforcement agencies in reports published six months ago.

Total cost of chemicals and equipment Reuters purchased, paid mostly in Bitcoin: $3,607.18.

I have no doubt that Reuters did what they said they did. I have trouble believing, however, that the stated profit margins are so high. A gram of cocaine is worth about $160 on the street and $13 to $70 smuggled into the US and ready for sale. So, the street price to production cost is about 12:1 and maybe as low as 2.3:1. Note that this benefit amount includes prison costs etc. I think Reuters is overestimating the street price of fentanyl by a factor of 2 which would still give a ratio of 415:1 which is much higher. Let’s say fentanyl sells for $1.5 million on the street to get a very generous 20:1 ratio we need $75,000 in expenses so my guess is that Reuters overestimated the expenses by a significant amount somehow.

It’s nice to get clarification or confirmation from those with more experience in the business.

I accept Reuters’ point that fentanyl is cheap and easy to produce.

The whole story is very good.



Source link