Michigan fell in July, and business unit costs rose slightly.
Figure 1: Year by year actual CPI inflation (bold black), and expected inflation from University of Michigan (red), NY Fed (green), Survey of Professional Forecasts (green +), Coibion-Gorodnichenko SoFIE mean (blue squares) , and unit cost growth rate (chartreuse), all in %. Source: BLS, U.Michigan via FRED, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
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