Fed Funds Path as of Noon ET

From CME:

Figure 1: Effective Fed funds (bold black), as of 7/26 (teal), as of 8/2 (red), and as of 8/5 noon ET (blue), at %. Source: Fed, CME, author’s calculations.

Note that the ten-year Treasury yield is wide open:

Note: Middle Time.

Addendum:

Fed monetary policy relative to CBO June projections:

Figure 2: Fed funds (black), CBO projection (blue), WSJ July survey says end of quarter (pink square), CME futures said as of 7/26 (green), as of 8/5 noon ET (red), all in %. Source: Fed, CME, WSJ survey, and author’s calculations.