Kursk in 2024 | Econbrowser

The biggest tank battle in WWII took place near Kursk, far from the Ukrainian invasion.

Source: Militaryland, accessed 8/9/2024.

This map corresponds to the blue rectangle on the map below of Kursk in 1943.

Source: Wikipedia, accessed 8/8/2024, edited by the author.

The green UX marks the location of almost all ongoing Ukrainian operations.

ISW notes:

The attack by Ukrainian forces on the border of Kursk Oblast that began on August 6 continues as part of Ukraine’s operational effort on Russian territory. ISW will not provide an assessment about the purpose of this Ukrainian operation in order to avoid jeopardizing the security of Ukrainian operations. ISW will not make predictions about what Ukrainian forces may or may not do or where or when they may do it. ISW will continue to map, track, and evaluate operations as they occur but will not provide insight into Ukrainian planning, tactics, or strategy. ISW does not intend to map the state of control inside Russia at this time and will instead map the observed events related to Ukraine’s entry into Russian territory and the high level of unconfirmed claims and reports about developments in Ukraine. High-profile claims and unconfirmed reports about Ukrainian developments inside Russia do not represent the territory ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces have occupied or controlled. Extrapolating predictions about Ukraine’s performance from ISW maps and surveys that do not clearly provide such predictions is incorrect and incompatible with their intended use.

Geolocated maps and Russian claims show that Ukrainian forces continued to advance rapidly in Kursk Oblast on August 8, and Ukrainian forces are reported to be located 35 kilometers from the international border with Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces certainly do not control the entire area within the scope of Russia’s claims about Ukraine’s advances in Kursk Oblast, however. Russian milbloggers say that Ukrainian forces have advanced in Kromskiye Byki and Molyutino (up to 35 kilometers from the international border and 17 kilometers southeast of Lgov) but note that these are small groups that are not immediately trying to seize territory.[1] Russian bloggers have issued conflicting claims about Ukrainian positions in Sudzha (northeast of Sumy City and about 10 kilometers from the international border), some milbloggers say that the Ukrainian army seized the settlement while other bloggers say that the military Ukrainians have taken only part of the territory.[2] Photos published on August 8 show that Ukrainian forces may advance towards Russkoye Porechnoye (north of Sudzha), and Russian correspondents say that Ukrainian forces are also advancing north of Sudzha along highway 38K-024 near Anastasyevka.[3] Photos published on August 7 and 8 show Ukrainian forces operating inside Goncharovka (just west of Sudzha) and north of Zaoleshenka (northwest of Sudzha), and a Russian milblogger said that Ukrainian forces seized Goncharovka.[4] A photo posted on the site shows Ukrainian forces operating inside Novoivanovka (10km north of the international border and northwest of Sudzha), and Russian milbloggers also claim that Ukrainian forces have seized Novoivanovka and Bogdanovka (northwest of -Sudzha).[5] Russian writers say that the Ukrainian forces also advanced north-west of the Sudzha into Malaya Loknya and the outskirts of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye; northeast of Sudzha near Kruglenkoye, Martynovka, and Bolshoye Soldatskoye; and east of Sudzha near Mirny, although two Russian authors deny claims that Ukrainian forces are operating near and within Bolshoye Soldatskoye.[6] Russian writers also say that Russian forces repelled the Ukrainian attack near Korenevo (north of Sumy City and about 23 kilometers north of the international border) and that Ukrainian forces attacked inside Snagost (south of Korenevo) near Olgovka (east of Korenevo).[7]

Russian milbloggers say small armed groups in Ukraine are advancing behind Russia and overrunning Russian fortifications before engaging Russian forces and withdrawing from the engagement without trying to consolidate control of their advance.[8] Russian milbloggers have noted that the proliferation of these armed groups leads to conflicting reports because Ukrainian forces are able to quickly mobilize Russian forces near the settlement and withdraw from the area.[9] The Ukrainian military appears to be able to use these small armed groups to carry out attacks beyond the line of defiance due to the low concentration of Russian personnel in the border areas of Kursk Oblast. Large Ukrainian units are reported to be operating in areas of Kursk Oblast near the international border and are reportedly consolidating and strengthening other positions.[10]

Russian milbloggers say that Ukrainian forces have successfully applied novel and new tactics and technical skills during operations in Kursk Oblast. Russian milbloggers have provided information on Ukrainian strategies and technical capabilities that they consider new, but ISW will not elaborate on such details at this time or point to specific sources in order to maintain the security of Ukraine’s operations.

The Kremlin will likely try to retake Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces have seized and stop Ukrainian activity in Russia, as Ukraine’s major advances in Russia could have a negative impact on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s multi-year consolidation effort. of Russia’s stability, security, and political renaissance. Putin held a virtual meeting with the Acting Head of Kursk Oblast Alexey Smirnov on August 8 about Ukraine’s operations in the region and said that he “knows in general.[s] situation” but would still like to hear Smirnov’s analysis of the situation.[11] Smirnov and Putin did not discuss Russia’s efforts to expel Ukrainian forces and portrayed the Russian government as effective in ensuring people’s safety and social and financial compensation. Russian milbloggers have highlighted concerns about the safety of Russian citizens and the irregular exodus of citizens.[12] Putin may be assessing whether he needs to respond to perceived threats to citizens to reassure the Russian public that the situation is under control and avoid major domestic discontent. Smirnov said on August 7 that the situation is “down [Putin’s] personal control,” which is directly linked to Russia’s success in expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast and reducing public affairs for Putin.[13] The Kremlin has previously indicated that it is capable of responding quickly to pro-Ukraine attacks in Russia, and it is possible that the Kremlin is assessing whether significant gains in Ukrainian territory from Russia would be a threat to the Kremlin’s efforts to establish itself as a stable authoritarian regime. the internal security situation within Russia and the successful warlord in Ukraine.[14]

If the Russian reporting on the situation in Kursk Oblast is accurate and if the Russian military command sees the situation as described by Russian sources, then the Russian military command has a series of actions (COAs) to pursue in response to Ukraine’s operations in Kursk Oblast. ISW is not prepared at this time to assess which of these COAs is most likely, and it is possible that the Russian military command may not rely on only one COA to respond to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast. Decision-making by the Russian military command will be influenced by its perception of the size and capability of Ukrainian forces in the region, which ISW does not assess.

Here is the latest ISW map:


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