If you’re wondering about the recession during the election…
Source: Pearce, Martin, Recession Monitor – Still no signs of recession, Oxford Economics, 6 August 2024.
I’m not sure about the exact combination of models used, but they apparently use “multivariate probit models with indicators based on sentiment, macroeconomics, and finance to provide a strong signal of a possible recession.”
Both series are subject to restrictions.
I found even more interesting their heat map:
Source: Pearce, Martin, Recession Monitor – Still no signs of recession, Oxford Economics, 6 August 2024.
There is a big difference between new orders, 10-3mo spreads, and – to a lesser extent long-term inactivity – compared to everything else. Note that their heat map does not include inactivity, or series that look like Sahm’s law (Sahm intended it coincided — not lead — indicator).
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