All show benefits from January 2023, save CPS based.
Figure 1: Further changes in NFP employment according to CES (bold black), implied initial benchmark (blue), initial benchmark (tan), Goldman Sachs estimate (blue square), CPS adjusted for NFP concept (i -teal), total QCEW covered, nsa (dark red), and author’s seasonally adjusted QCEW using X-13 (in logs) (salmon), all in 000’s. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s statistics.
Note that the NFP-adjusted CPS series will be biased downward if the overall CPS series is biased downward. This is possible, as discussed here.
so…it is not yet time to panic about the recession, at least with the NFP employment figures.
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