The Conference Board’s Confidence Index exceeds consensus (103.3 > 100.9), July index revised. Here are August’s readings for confidence, emotions and stories.
Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Conference Board of Consumer Confidence (tan, left scale), both deflated and normalized by standard deviation (sample period shown); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Daily News Sentiment Index (black, right-hand scale). News Index View for August through 8/25/2024. The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Source: U.Mich via FRED, The Conference Board via Investing.com, SF Fed, NBER, and author’s statistics.
Here’s a closer look at what’s happened emotionally since the Democratic presidential nominee changed.
Figure 1: Change since July 2024 in University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Democrats (blue), in Consumer Sentiment – Republican (red), and Conference Board Consumer Confidence (chartreuse), Source: U.Mich, Conference Board on Investing.com, and author statistics.
The movement in motion is divided between Democrats vs. Republican.
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