And could it be that Ancient Aliens helped build the Pyramids? Of course!
EJ Antoni links to an article noting that Senators Roger Marshall (R-KS), Ted Budd (R-NC), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) entered . to request a BLS investigation regarding the original benchmark review:
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), who is leading the case, said that the public should be investigated to determine whether these numbers were deliberately manipulated to promote Harris-Biden.
“Using taxpayer dollars to mislead the public for political gain is deeply dishonest and one of the reasons Americans have lost faith in this Administration,” Marshall told The Post.
Dr. Antoni should know better. Here’s a time series plot of benchmark updates, expressed in % terms (employment grows over time, after all).
Figure 1: Initial benchmark revision, in % of initial employment rate (blue). Red dashed lines in election years. Source: BLS, and each year’s first BLS benchmark revision release.
A downward revision of 0.5 ppts is less than two standard deviations from the mean -0.1 ppts revision (std dev is 0.26 ppts). This means that downward revisions are not statistically significant at 5% msl.
Note also that if the BLS were missing numbers before the election, one would expect a positive systematic revision in election years (shown by the red dashed lines).
Therefore, one may criticize the BLS on methodological grounds (Do you question the birth-death model used? Then suggest something better) but insulting the motives of the professional staff of a non-participating statistical organization seems particularly culpable if you come from the area. Ph.D. an economist should know better. (Personally, I think it’s more likely that the BLS in its final bench revision will increase employment, because of (1) the possible bias in the QCEW numbers used to calculate the initial benchmark, and (2) the fact that the initial benchmark revision is in private NFP. CES is not reflected in the ADP-Stanford series (the latter does not rely on the QCEW or the birth-mortality model).
So Dr. Antoni joins the ranks of prominent examiners of data paranoia, such as Senator Barraso, Jack Welch, former Rep. Allan West, Zerohedge .
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