From Polymarket, accessed at 4pm CT today:
The odds are very low…on the other hand, this is a bunch of non-US citizens betting on a US economic event. By comparison, Polymarket (which can’t work in the US) shows 52-46 Trump/Harris, while PredictIt (which can work in the US) estimates 52-52. Polymarket consistently predicted a higher probability of a Trump win (vs. Harris) than PredicIt.
I have to admit some uncertainty about the bet, since the result will be decided on 12/31/2024, but we won’t have Q4 GDP until January 2025… Here are the rules:
This market will decide “Yes” if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in the United States during the 2024 calendar year, based on the periodically adjusted annual estimate. This includes any two consecutive quarters: Q1-Q2, Q2-Q3, or Q3-Q4. The decision will be based on BEA’s latest quarterly report.
If GDP data for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is updated prior to the release of the Advance Estimate for Q4, the latest available update will be used for the market adjustment instead of the first Advance Estimate. Updates made after the release of the Q4 Advance Estimate will not be considered for any quarter, including Q4 itself.
The primary source for solving this market is BEA’s official data on the seasonally adjusted percentage change in US quarterly real GDP, as available on their website. Reliable reporting consistency can also be used when there is ambiguity in official data.
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