Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Conference Board of Consumer Confidence (tan, left scale), both deflated and normalized by standard deviation (sample period shown); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Daily News Sentiment Index (black, right scale). September News Index View through 9/8/2024. The mood in Michigan in September is a first. The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Source: U.Mich via FRED, The Conference Board via Investing.com, SF Fed, NBER, and author’s statistics.
Figure 1: Year by year actual CPI inflation (bold black), and expected inflation from University of Michigan (red), NY Fed (green), Survey of Professional Forecasts (green +), Coibion-Gorodnichenko SoFIE mean (blue squares) , Cleveland Fed (pink), all in %. Michigan inflation expectations for September are preliminary. Source: BLS, U.Michigan via FRED, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
Source link