From the Fed today:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median (light green inverted triangle), GDPNow as of 9/18 (blue square), NY Fed now as of 9/13 (red triangle) , FT-Booth from 9/ 14 (blue square), and August median SPF (tan), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. The rates are calculated by multiplying the growth rate by GDP rates, except for the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source: BEA 2024Q2 2nd Release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve September 2024 SEP and author’s calculations.
Goldman Sachs is tracking at 3% q/q AR (vs. 2.9% for GDPNow). Note that the q4/q4 average growth rate from the SEP (2.0%) was exactly the same as the June SEP (2.1%). September’s SEP low/high range is 1.8%-2.6%, with an average trend from 1.9% to 2.1%.
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