Since August, which includes the latest energy consumption and production data, I was tempted to reject, even to include in the face value the first rate revision in the work.
Figure 1: Manufacturing output (blue scale, left scale), implied employment from the first benchmark (tan, left scale), aggregate hours (green, left scale), and real value added (red), all in log, 2021M07=0, and production energy consumption , in % (black, right scale). Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA via FRED, NBER.
Note that 2023Q4 value added was higher than 2021Q4. Unfortunately, we do not have data beyond 2024Q1 (this data will be reported on 9/27).
Data supporting the decline in manufacturing comes from broad indicators, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI.
Source: TradingEconomics.com. Blue is S&P, gray is ISM.
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