Unemployment is rising in many states, but so is employment growth (NFP) (report).
Here is the distribution (mean of 25) of the 3-month change in the unemployment rate.
Source: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.
The dashed line is Wells Fargo’s assessment of the national recession threshold based on this index.
How does the nonfarm payroll work? Here’s the m/m change, in context.
Source: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.
The month-to-month statistics are noisy, so here they are year-by-year (with battlegrounds outlined in blue):
Source: BLS, 20 Sept 2024, as edited by author.
According to the index, the national NFP growth was 1.5%. Thus, five of the seven battleground states were above the national average, with Michigan lagging behind.
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