A similar pattern emerged in my recent report on crime in Washington, DC There, again, there are signs of an increase in disorder, related to the pandemic and pre-pandemic, as the police are less attentive. Homelessness, unsanitary conditions, shoplifting, money laundering—all seem to have become more common in DC. And those problems have come to light as the small police force has prioritized law enforcement—if you look at table 2 of that report, you’ll see that arrests for petty crimes have dropped by a percentage 99 in 2023 compared to 2019.
I’m increasingly thinking that this is normal. Disorder is not measured as crime—there is no standard for aggregating disorder ratings across cities. But if you look for the signs, they are there. Shoplifting, although difficult to measure, has become so bad that major retailers are now closing their stores in many cities. The number of homeless homeless people has increased dramatically. People seem to have little control over their dogs. Road deaths have increased, as vehicle miles driven have decreased, suggesting that people are driving more carelessly. Public drug use in cities from San Francisco to Philadelphia has been bad enough to cause a decline.
These are vague signals, but they match my personal experience (for what it’s worth). In the half-dozen cities I’ve visited in the past year, visual disruption has been the norm.
Here’s another from Charles Fain Lehman.
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