We are once again in a situation where information about the conflict between the Resistance and Israel has been tainted by propaganda, critical omissions and certain elite observers. Even though Iranian missiles struck Iran yesterday, the reporting is still a mess, admittedly in no small part due to Israel’s attempted blackout.
However, some things seem to be known:
Israel’s air defenses also failed. This is a major repeat of what happened in April, when Iran agreed to what Israel and its allies thought would be Potemkin’s revenge on Israel by mugging the Iranian ambassador in Damascus. Even though Israel has the right conditions, the target is agreed in advance, supported by the US, the UK and France, Iran sends slow drones with a flight time of six hours first and broadcasts the launch on state TV, Iran hit every target very quickly. accuracy. And the cost of the strikes was $90 million-ish to Iran, and the defense cost to Israel was IIRC $1.35 billion, plus another $1 billion to Israel’s allies.1
Iran fired 200 to 400 missiles. The Navy said it shot down only about a dozen missiles.2 We had this tweet on Links but it’s worth highlighting:
🇮🇱🇮🇷 15 minutes Iranian missiles hitting Israel … supercut pic.twitter.com/OABH2cWfb4
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) October 1, 2024
The extent of the damage is unclear and in any case, Iran may have been more interested in a show of force. Pathologically, pro-Israel sources take the lack of any deaths as proof that Iran was still showing restraint and trying to avoid casualties. Iran reportedly hit three airports, Nevidim, Telnov, and Hatserim, and also hit the nearby Mossad Unit 8200 building. There were also unconfirmed videos on Twitter showing missiles hitting Israel’s offshore gas base, which supplies 80% of Israel’s natural gas. -Israel, and an oil tank.
Iran says it has withdrawn 20 of Israel’s 35 F-35s, stationed at Nevatim. However, Simplicius says this is wrong and that Iran has given Israel a warning. This seems inconsistent with other accounts that the Iranian ballistic missiles showed up so quickly that Israel did not hear air warnings in advance. Anyway:
In fact, Iran openly admitted that it notified the US—and thus Israel—of the strikes in advance, which gave Israel advance warning to take all of its F-35s out of the sky. This is a common procedure for high-value goods such as that before any strike, which is often carried out by Ukraine and Russia in the SMO.
This seems to contradict the prevailing accounts from the Ukrainian and Russian side that they are taking out high value fighter jets and now Russia is hunting down and destroying F-16s. Student hygiene checks are welcome.
However, the Iranian statement after the attack indicated that they intended to retaliate, so breaking more china in Israel would not be compatible.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): We are hitting military targets with multiple rockets in the Palestinian territories.
IRGC: In response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and martyr Neilvorushan, we targeted the heart of the… pic.twitter.com/IAfgwPGrbJ
— Vanessa Beeley/ UK Column (@VanessaBeeley) October 1, 2024
In other words, many of the seemingly near misses or hits in the low-value categories of high-value properties are often by design.
One should also not minimize the effect on the citizens of Israel of seeing so many missiles sitting unhindered.
The US and Israel are now in chaos. Netanyahu and the US, to preserve their sense of masculinity, need to respond. But in the end it may dawn on Netanyahu that the US cannot save Israel from Iran in a full-scale war, although the US and its allies may mark Iran more. The man on the right is the head of the Mossad.
Now Israel could use nukes on Iran, but Iran is widely believed to have a greater counter-attack capability that would not only cripple Israel but also burn Saudi oil fields, turning the Middle East into a natural disaster zone.
Politico reported that Israel lobbied the White House to go along with the obvious idea of ​​attacking Lebanon to force it into negotiations. Since Amos Hochstein was part of this plan, it is not difficult to imagine, as usual, that he was working to improve Israel against US interests. And Netanyahu wanted to make the US more deeply committed to Israel’s defense, so any way to get the US to go along with the escalation was for him.
Remember, even if the great turmoil in Israel puts the Democratic Party in danger of keeping the Presidency (is Madame Joy Vibes a reliable military leader?), the White House continued to face opposition from the Pentagon, State and intelligence agencies. This should have been more than enough reason to pause; since when has Anthony Blinken held back from being Israel’s chief executive?
The US and Israel have overestimated how much damage they have inflicted on Hezbollah, despite killing most of its elite. It still has about 150,000 missiles. How much is needed in the leadership process to share goals and fire? This was the point John Mearsheimer made in an interview with the Observer: Hezbollah was apparently not defeated after Israel killed Nasrallah and other top Hezbollah figures because Hezbollah was still firing at Israel. Functionally, nothing important to Israel had changed.
Norman Finkelstein recently made a similar point: that Israel’s claim that it needed to make Hezbollah retreat past the Litani River in order for the settlers in northern Israel to go home was patently false. Hezbollah was firing from far north of Lebanon. The demand was about getting permission, the location is important, from Hezbollah to show that Israel has succeeded.
Remember Netanyahu’s bluster at the UN. The main motivation for the attack which was intended to be a pager and leadership was to regain the visibility of the military, both for the chops of Israel in the region and to restore a sense of security to the people of Israel.
“I have a message for the dictators in Tehran – if you hit us, we will hit you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach. And that is true throughout the Middle East.”
Speaking at the UN General Assembly today, Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu… pic.twitter.com/MgTGIEoekZ
— 5Pillars (@5Pillarsuk) September 27, 2024
However, without misreading Iran’s strategic patience as weakness, and almost refusing to recognize its military strength, the US and Israel may also underestimate the tenacity of the Shia, especially when fighting for their families, their country, and their religion. Alastair Crooke recently recounted that the Shia around 900 AD were a major power in the Middle East, and later they often submitted to other rulers. Under the Caliphate, Shia were told not to go to their mosques, under penalty of losing a finger if they did. “With Crooke, they kept coming, losing all their fingers, then all their toes, then both hands, then their feet. He added that sacrifice remains a deep and unknown value for us.
The Anglosphere is less vocal about the attack on Iran than one might expect, and insists that it failed without causing much (admitted) damage. Many commentators read that as intended to persuade Israel not to retaliate or engage in a carefully planned response.
Given Israel’s steady tendency toward disproportionate retaliation, bolstered by Netanyahu’s mad desire to coax the US, it seems unlikely that Israel will be measured. Israel is now using the “we will respond at a time of our choosing” trope. That would be to placate the US, to pretend that Israel will not do anything bad until after the election, when its plans are different.
Turning briefly to Lebanon, the idea of ​​a limited attack was clearly an oxymoron, and another very obvious term to include the US. Yet the irony is that, at least so far, Israel, despite all the noise about launching its ground offensive, does not seem to be out of the observation blocks. In a story today from Arab News:
Hezbollah has said that no Israeli soldiers have crossed into Lebanon. “All Zionist claims that the (Israeli) army entered Lebanon are false,” a Hezbollah spokesman said in a statement on Tuesday.
They added that “there has been no direct conflict between the (Hezbollah) forces and the (Israeli) forces.”
The UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon also said on Tuesday that “no ground attack” had taken place in the south of the country. UNIFIL spokeswoman Andrea Tenenti told AFP that “there is no attack at this time.”
However, Aljazeera’s lead article from a few hours ago, which I wish I had a screenshot of, showed that Israel had not gone too far over the border. That has changed, but these are the only details:
Fighting between Hezbollah fighters and Israeli forces in southern Lebanon is intensifying, with the Israeli military saying at least eight soldiers have been killed in the fighting so far.
The Jerusalem Post leads with a similar story: IDF announces 7 IDF soldiers killed by Hezbollah during operation on the ground in Lebanon. It explains that they were killed in three separate incidents on Wednesday. So this app doesn’t look like it’s off to a good start.
Twitter has no information on the status of border fighting. Updates are welcome.
_____
1 Scott Ritter explained to Judge Napolitano that this time, Iran only used ballistic missiles. The Iron Dome is not designed to protect against them; for Hamas and Hezbollah rockets. Defenses are systems for US naval vessels and other ground-launched missiles, such as the Patriots. However, the latter are not widely available.
2 The claim in the Jerusalem Post was even more modest: “….the Pentagon said two US Navy destroyers fired about a dozen interceptors against Iranian missiles aimed at Israel.”
