It’s a poison pill a noun
a financial trick or offer used by a company to make an unwanted takeover prohibitively expensive or less desirable-Merriam Webster
Yours truly must admit that you have ignored an important part of Putin’s proposed peace plan, which he announced on June 14, and his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently reiterated in an exclusive interview with Newsweek, which was his position on sanctions. Granted, Putin included it almost as an afterthought.
First, let’s look at Lavrov’s recitation, as it is more comprehensive than Putin’s formulation (which Putin put in two places in his speech, so it was not an organized, independent list). From Newsweek:
On June 14, President Vladimir Putin listed the requirements for solving the problem as follows: the complete withdrawal of the AFU from the DPR. [Donetsk People’s Republic]LPR [Luhansk People’s Republic]Zaporozhye and Kherson regions; recognition of territorial realities as stipulated in the Russian Constitution; the neutral, non-bloc, non-nuclear status of Ukraine; its demilitarization and denazification; to protect the rights, freedoms and interests of Russian-speaking citizens; and the removal of all sanctions against Russia.
Despite the fact that Putin put all these issues, including the recognition of the four regions and Crimea as part of Russia, in his speech of June 14, important media sources also mentioned important points (see for example the text of Anadolu Agency).
We will skip the fact that Putin warned, shortly after the collapse of the Istanbul talks, that if the war continues, it will be very difficult to negotiate with Russia. Proving, just because of Putin’s last offer made in June and now it’s October, when Russia has made a big breakthrough on the ground, that Russia will insist on tough policies now. That is proven by Russia’s position that it will not negotiate with Ukraine as long as it has troops in Russia. And many analysts say that the opinion in Russia became even harder against Ukraine after the attack on Kursk, and many citizens want Russia to fully conquer Ukraine and set goals for that in advance.
Currently, Western analysts are focused on what is certain to continue in a non-negotiable position: that of Ukraine’s neutrality and sworn membership of NATO. That was partially agreed in Istanbul in March-April 2022 because the US and NATO were allowing Ukraine a semblance of independence. That is no longer the case. NATO and other Western officials are now often surprised that Russia has no business deciding which country joins NATO. Of course, Ukraine under different administrations (including most of the dead or exiled Banderites) can but the US and NATO will not provide any security guarantees. Some Western academics and officials are engaging in new forms of coping, such as encouraging Ukraine to relinquish land seized from Russia (temporarily!) in exchange for NATO membership. Unfortunately, the Zelensky and Azov varieties are incandescent.
Part of Putin’s proposal that I found absurd but received little attention in the Western press was the condition that Ukraine withdraw from all four disputed territories, which goes beyond what is in Russia and that it is recognized as Russian territory. For those who weren’t paying enough attention, the Banderites threatened Zelensky if he gave up any part of Ukraine.
From the Kremlin’s translation of a meeting with senior State Department officials:
Certainly, the rights, freedoms, and interests of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine must be fully protected. The realities of the new territories, including the status of Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics, Kherson regions, and Zaporozhye as parts of the Russian Federation, should be noted. These basic principles need to be formalized through basic international agreements in the future. Naturally, this includes the removal of all Western sanctions against Russia.
You will see that Putin is moving from the terms of the agreement that Ukraine can agree to alone, to those of other countries, which are accepted on the street. Even if in the future Ukraine agrees to recognize the four oblasts and Crimea as part of Russia, it seems almost impossible that the US and the EU will ever agree to that. However, more BRICS members are possible, so that would provide greater legitimacy
It’s strange, then, to see Putin, who clearly knows what he’s doing, tossing around the idea of rolling back all of the Collective West sanctions almost as an afterthought. This was officially imposed on the federal government. The US, UK, EU, Australia, Japan and South Korea have all used sanctions packages. That included the seizure of Russian central bank assets by the EU, the US, and the UK, with the EU holding most of the frozen proceeds.
Let’s engage in some thought exercises. The EU has been actively trying to “proof Trump” of various Ukrainian programs. If Trump becomes President and is willing to meet with Russia more than halfway and give sanctions relief, you can be sure that the EU will do everything in its power to undermine Trump, especially when they have more freedom levels, as sanctions are. Remember too that Ursula von der Leyen is almost as outrageously anti-Russia as she is Baltic, and has filled the highest ranks of the Commission with female uber-hawks. EU experts please move on. I think that modifying or ending the sanctions will require a unanimous EU vote, not just a qualified majority, which is equivalent to what is happening.
Mind you, I expect this undeniable rejection to continue even when it’s more self-inflicted than it is now. What if things get so bad in the Middle East that oil goes over $120 a barrel and stays there? Yes, China will suffer, but so will a shrinking EU. But it seems unlikely that they will lift the Russian oil embargo, or that Germany will accept gas from one of the four remaining Nordstream 2 pipelines.
Given all that, one must assume that Putin clearly understood that his potential Western interlocutors would reject not just some but all of his points of agreement on racism. So why make an offer that the other side is set to reject? First, Putin (as we and others have emphasized) finds it important to make it clear to his economic partners of the Global South that he is not a difficult party, that Russia is not an obstacle to ending the war. Most of these countries still seem uncomfortable with Russia invading and occupying the neighborhood even if they understand why psychologically.
To put it another way, setting goals, even if they are reasonable, or at least a non-insane position to open negotiations, which the other side looks set to reject, looks like a record-setting exercise, rather than a negotiation. . Lavrov reiterated this view to Newsweek: “Right now, in our view, restoring peace is not part of our enemy’s plan.”
One could therefore argue that Putin had decided before June 14 that the only way to resolve the conflict was through victory on the battlefield. His preparations were a way to make the officer not say so.
But secondly, this could be Putin doing his own Trump-proofing. Remember, he made this speech before Biden’s second assassination debate with Trump. Trump then appeared to be at odds with Biden due to, among other things, Biden’s lack of enthusiasm for ending the Democratic Party’s fundraising efforts. And Trump has told anyone who will listen that he can secure peace in Ukraine in 24 hours.
So was this word draft proof that Trump is from Russia? Remember how Putin later found cooperation with Macron’s various peace initiatives troubling. So he might want to cut short similar meaningless conversations with Trump by pointing to his position and playing up a broken record.
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