Netanyahu seems willing to criticize any opponents, as if Yahweh or the US could bail him out from any negative consequences. We will turn first, and briefly, to Netanyahu formalizing his new genocidal campaign against Lebanon, and then openly defying the US regarding Israel’s expected attack on Iran.
The fact that Netanyahu is determined to destroy Lebanon is not surprising; UN officials have been warning that it is on its way to becoming Gaza in recent weeks. Some of the sad details, first from Aljazeera:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Lebanon that it may face “Gaza-like” destruction and said Israel killed “the slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and his successor”….
“You have a chance to save Lebanon before it falls into the abyss of a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering as we see in Gaza,” Netanyahu said in his speech, referring to the besieged area that has been under pressure. bombing campaign in Israel for one year.
And the State Department has confirmed that the Biden Administration is facing multiple war crimes such as collective punishment, and the extension of the killing program in Gaza:
So the answer to your question is yes, we support Israel launching these attacks to degrade Hizballah’s infrastructure so that we can finally find a diplomatic solution that allows 1701 to finally be fully implemented.
Needless to say, Israel’s attack on “Hizbollah infrastructure” when it demolishes hospitals and apartments is defiant.
While the US and Israel are on the same page about the destruction of Lebanon, they seem to be at odds about what exactly Israel will do in its planned attack on Iran. I don’t believe this is spin-doctoring to make the US look uninvolved. First, Israel has status. Biden and other officials repeatedly saying that they will support Israel no matter what, combined with the failure to use any reasonable measures like seizing weapons (denying for one week some powerful bombs was a lame move), means that the administration has done itself a disservice. by the actions of Israel. That is very clear to Muslim voters and anyone outside the mainstream media bubble. So the Administration and 12 other nations got a front page headline about their 21-day ceasefire plan, for Israel to kill Hassan Nasrallah, making all these leaders look like fools. There would have been much cheaper ways to try to distract the US from killing that target.
Second, much has been made public about the details of the US and Israeli arm-wrestling. Of note is the sudden cancellation of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s trip to the Pentagon. The Financial Times had the first account:
Israel has told the US that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant will not travel to Washington this week, fearing that the cancellation could jeopardize cooperation with Israel over its response to the Iranian missile attack.
“We have just been informed that Secretary Gallant will be postponing his trip to Washington, DC,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said on Tuesday, hours before she was due to fly to the US.
The trip, which was planned at Gallant’s request, was seen as an important opportunity for the US and Israel to discuss Israel’s retaliation plan against Iran for its ballistic missile attack last week and its escalating conflict in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Gallant to postpone his visit to Washington, a person familiar with the matter said.
The prime minister did not want Gallant to leave until his Cabinet voted on the country’s response to Iran’s missile strike and Netanyahu spoke to US President Joe Biden on the phone, the person said.
A call between Netanyahu and Biden has been in the works for “several days” but is not happening, they added.
Hours later, Axios and the Wall Street Journal, both citing the same source, said the call was on Wednesday.
Gallant is reported to be in regular contact with US defense chief Lloyd Austin and is seen as the most responsive Israeli official to the Pentagon’s problems. I am of the opinion that like the IDF in general, he has been trying to force the prosecution of the war, if nothing else, out of an understanding of Israel’s limitations.
Reading between the lines of the Financial Times account, it appears that Netanyahu was trying to force a call with Biden that Biden was trying to postpone, as he backed off. That might be a wet noodle-level attempt to tell Netanyahu he’s in the dog house. I don’t buy the Knesset vote part of the excuse for one second; that would have little bearing on the details of the strike package Gallant would discuss with the Pentagon. And this blood-soaked Knesset would allow any self-destructive plan put before them regardless of what they said.
Apart from confirming the importance of Biden, the second reason for Netanyahu to insist on the speech of Biden before Gallant goes to the US would be to limit Gallant’s freedom of action. If Gallant was concerned that political leaders were being unrealistic about Iran’s defenses (especially its nuclear weapons program) and Iran’s ability to retaliate, it would make sense that system work with the Pentagon to revise any plans he had to agree to (or at least approve) to something less dangerous.
The Wall Street Journal had more details on US Frustrated by Israel’s Reluctance to Share Plans to Return Iran:
Israel has so far refused to disclose to the Biden administration details of its plans to retaliate against Tehran, US officials said, as the White House urged its closest Middle Eastern ally not to strike Iran’s oil facilities or nuclear sites amid fears of escalation. regional war.
To remind readers: Iran’s nuclear sites related to its enrichment program are buried deep underground. All kinds of experts have chosen that most of Israel and the US would do to them, a nuclear attack, would be “cosmetic” damage; it is doubtful that even a nuclear explosion would do much damage. However, as far as I know, Iran also has one nuclear reactor which is for production power. I’m not sure how far inside Iran it is and if it’s as solid as the other sites.
The Financial Times confirmed this view in Can Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities on its own? The first part of the article gives the general drift:
But without US support, a lone Israeli air strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be more dangerous and at least delay rather than destroy its program, according to analysts.
Why is the work of Israel difficult?
The first reason is distance. It is more than 1,000 miles from Israel to Iran’s major nuclear sites, and to reach them Israeli planes would have to cross the airspace controlled by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Syria and possibly Turkey.
Next is fuel. Flying into the target and retreating would take all of Israel’s aerial refueling capabilities and leave little margin for error, according to a report by the US Congressional Research Service.
The third is the Iranian air defense. The country’s main nuclear sites are heavily guarded, and Israeli bombers will have to be protected by warplanes.
That would require a strike package of about 100, according to the CRS report — equivalent to about a third of the Israeli air force’s 340 combat-capable aircraft.
We will return to the journal:
American officials are frustrated that they have been repeatedly caught off guard by the actions of the Israeli military in Gaza and Lebanon, and they want to continue to escalate…
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu barred Gallant from leaving the US on Tuesday night as Israel continues to plan its operations in Iran, an Israeli official said. US officials said they do not yet have a timeline for the strike or what Israel might be targeting….
Army General Erik Kurilla, who heads US Central Command, which oversees US military operations in the Middle East, traveled to Israel on Sunday where he met with Gallant and top Israeli military officials, in part, to warn against striking Iran’s nuclear facilities. . or oil resources….
But American officials will not say if they received assurances from Israel that Washington will be informed before Israel’s expected strike on Iran…During the meeting in Washington that was supposed to take place on Wednesday, Gallant was expected to deliver some details of the strike plan. , including potential targets, US officials said.
The fact that Kurilla met with Gallant and IDF officials on Sunday could indicate the Pentagon and the IDF were negotiating a strike package, and Netanyahu decided to kick that table. It seems clear that Netanyahu is making it clear that the pollsters are in charge, not the experts.
So why does Netanyahu insist on talking to Biden? One might think that he intends to make a one-way communication, such as “Gallant will shrink the Pentagon, but only to a great extent and we can still revise our plans” or issue something, such as “We will not beat the heirs of power if we join us in beating another XYZ.”
What is important is that Netanyahu would not have kept the idea of an attack on Iran in the press if he was trying to find a way out. So I would highly recommend a diet like MK Bhadrakumar’s.
Since Israel loves public scrutiny and humiliation, Israel may completely avoid militarizing Iran (which Iran has been trying to protect with the help of Russia) and strike critical public infrastructure, such as water treatment or electricity generation or dams.
As many have pointed out, Iran’s success in repeatedly penetrating Israel’s air defenses and its massive missile arsenal means it can choose how to bow to Israel when attacked. Iran has threatened to attack civilian infrastructure but I personally like the idea of completely destroying all of its military bases (Ben Gurion is also used for some military aircraft, so it might have to be heavily abused). That would have the bonus of stopping the attack on Lebanon.
However, if Israel really understands that (as opposed to continuing to live in the dream of its supremacy and the supremacy of the US), that means that the chances are that they will raise nuclear weapons, and not spend them on the proper installation of nuclear weapons but strike. “decision centers.” That kind of disproportionate response would be within their character. It can better explain Netanyahu’s determination because of the weakness of his general forces, even the respected air force, against Iran. I am under the impression that Iran also has very secure bunkers for its leadership, but can all important people go there? And how many of the most important people (think the equivalent of senior management and subordinates) would perish?
We can only hope that Israel is overestimating the effectiveness of its conventional weapons. We’ll find out soon enough.
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