Nowcasts of NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis rose from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged at 3.2%.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median rebound from release 3 (inverted green triangle), GDPNow as of 10/9 (blue square), NY Fed now in circulation on 10/11 (red triangles), St Louis Fed news now on 10/11 (pink x), Goldman Sachs tracking from 10/9 (green +), FT-Booth as of 9/14 reissued in 3rd issue (green square), all in bn.Ch. in 2017 US dollars. The rates are calculated by multiplying the growth rate by GDP rates, except for the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd Release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve September 2024 SEP and author’s calculations.
The Lewis-Merten-Stock Weekly Economic Index (for data available 10/5) is at 2.10% AR, and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index is at -0.11% (so 1.89% if 2% trend). It’s hard to see a recession in the data available in early October, then.
Finally, with these estimates out, I welcome a new member to the “recession camp”: Mike Shedlock. In addition, EJ Antoni and Peter St. They have pushed back the start of the recession to 2022.
Source link