Video today.
55% of Americans believe they are in a recession.
Why? Because they have been one.
Most indications suggest otherwise.
Here are some of Hovde’s predictions from December 2023:
- Recession: The US is likely to enter a recession, where consumers are expected to drain their savings, resulting in only one quarter of GDP likely to be positive by 2024.
- …
- Stock Market and Bond Market: The stock market is expected to sell off by 15% over the next six months, followed by a moderate rally when the devaluation begins. The bond market, after three consecutive years of decline, is expected to grow well in 2024.
- Housing Market: Housing prices may drop as much as 10%, but limited inventory should provide some stability.
- …
Here’s a plot of the S&P500 and what the S&P500 needs to be in June to match Hovde’s prediction.
Figure 2: The S&P500 (bold black), and Hovde’s projection (red square). May observations until May 16. Source: FRED, and author’s calculations.
Finally, what about the housing market? The 10% drop in price is for 2024, so I think the 10% drop is off the December level.
Figure 3: S&P Case Shiller 20 City home price index, sa (bold black), and Hovde’s forecast (red square). Source: FRED and author’s calculations.
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