Item 1:
Source: Antoni.
Item 2:
Source: Antoni.
Not that the data is “wrong” (I’m not a data conspiracy guru). Out of context, it doesn’t mean anything. Here’s what a suitable graph (prompted by Quantity Theory) might show:
Figure 1: M2 to GDP (blue, left scale), M2 to GDPNow (10/18) (blue +, left scale), PCE deflator (tan, right scale), all in the logs. The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Source: Federal Reserve, BEA via FRED, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: M2 to GDP (blue ratio, left), M2 to GDPNow (10/18) (blue +, left scale), PCE deflator (tan, right scale), all in logs, 1986Q1=0. The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Source: Federal Reserve, BEA via FRED, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
By the way, try the integration test in this thread, to get some light.
Other related posts here and here.
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