Conor here: I don’t understand why this is so difficult. If Europe does not want or prepare for so many refugees, it must end with the destruction of the communities near the “garden” walls. The media always seem to ignore Europe’s role in creating this chaos. The way the EU and/or some of its member states continue to introduce or support these bloody conflicts (Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Palestine, Lebanon) is enough to make one wonder if it is actually a conscious policy to bring in more exploited refugees. work. But to believe that, you have to believe that the current crop of European officials and their benefactors are capable of such foresight.
However, according to Eurostat non-EU citizens make up 5.1 percent of the legal workforce and a higher percentage of “essential workers.” As the following piece notes, “back in 2015 more than a million refugees, most of them Syrian, arrived in Germany, and many of them are now contributing to the country’s workforce. Syrians and their families have also helped boost German domestic consumption, and bolster the aging population, showing how migration can be a powerful tool if managed effectively. “
The problem is that an increasing number of European citizens do not believe that it is “managed effectively.” It is very difficult to make that argument when people’s living standards are deteriorating and social programs are being cut. The political class is making a big shift from supporting the benefits of immigration/diversity to making a show of ending Schengen. But politicians such as German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock continue to flirt with Israel:
In #Lebanonpeople are afraid of their loved ones every day. Again, Hezbollah terrorists hide irresponsibly behind civilians and fire rockets #Israel every day. Israel must defend itself against this attack. – @ABaerbock in Beirut 1/4 pic.twitter.com/D2mCke7HKn
– GermanForeignOffice (@GermanyDiplo) October 23, 2024
And with such leadership Europe now has a sinking economy, industrialization and more austerity and refugees on the way. Oh, and the fallout from Project Ukraine. It’s going to be a long winter.
By Barah Mikaïl, Associate Professor of International Security at Saint Louis University Madrid Campus and IE University and director of the Observatory on Contemporary Crises. He is also the founder of Sstrategia, a Madrid-based consultancy that provides advice on the Geopolitics of the MENA region and Spanish politics. Cross posted from The Conversation.
Since it began at the end of September, Israel’s invasion of Lebanon has added to the misery of a Middle East already beset by a humanitarian crisis. In Lebanon, since October 23, 2024, more than 1.2 million people have fled their homes, and tens of thousands are now trying to flee abroad.
From the point of view of the European Union (EU), limited legal migration channels, and the presence of increased migration pressures, may create a repeat of the refugee crisis of 2015.
As this migration increases, Europe needs to balance immediate humanitarian needs with the long-term issues of refugee resettlement and integration. However, the current political climate of the continent presents very difficult obstacles to making this happen.
Lebanese Refugees Fleeing Syria
After the Arab Spring reached Syria in 2011, Lebanon became home to approximately 1.5 million Syrian refugees. Today this move has been reversed, as the Israeli-Lebanon conflict pushes Syrian refugees and Lebanese residents across the border into Syria.
As of 21 October 2024, an estimated 425,000 people had fled Lebanon, crossing the nearest available border into Syria. Additionally, approximately 16,700 Lebanese citizens have fled to Iraq.
The conflict between Israel and Lebanon is still in its early days, and many of these refugees, for now, are going wherever they can. However, they show the volume of forced migration that is still going on. Over time, many will head to Europe, which will lead to greater migration pressure in the EU, like the refugee crisis of 2015, when more than a million refugees entered Europe mainly – although not necessarily – using the Mediterranean routes.
It seems that Europe did not see this coming. A few months ago, in May this year, the EU announced an aid package of 1 billion euros in Lebanon to deal with the migration problem and deal with it at its root. It is unlikely that this funding will be enough to stabilize the region, or prevent mass migration.
Indeed, Lebanon, already vulnerable to political collapse, may not soon be able to put together any reasonable immigration controls.
In the wider context of a highly volatile Middle East, this will pile up the pressure on Europe. As regional instability intensifies, European countries can expect more migrants, and their asylum requests, to reach countries such as Greece or Italy, both of which are located on the front lines of migration routes.
Can the EU Take All the Refugees from the Middle East?
Materially, economically, countries like Germany have shown that it is possible to hold large numbers of refugees.
Back in 2015 more than a million refugees, mostly Syrians, arrived in Germany, and many of them are now contributing to the country’s economy. Syrians and their families have also helped boost Germany’s domestic consumption, and bolster its aging population, showing how migration can be a powerful tool if managed effectively.
However, today’s political climate is different. The growing support of anti-immigration groups has created deep social divisions over the acceptance of refugees. Public opinion has turned to calls for tighter border controls and reduced immigration.
This ongoing trend has already deepened since the 2024 European Parliament elections, where the opposition and right-wing parties gained political ground.
The EU’s strong reaction to the crisis is reflected in its weak policy efforts, such as the recent pledge to resettle 31,000 refugees in 2024 and 2025. This is a low tide – more than 16 million refugees and displaced people are currently awaiting resettlement in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
Whether the EU can accept all the refugees from Lebanon and other conflicts in the Middle East is a difficult question. While on paper it may be economically feasible – and arguably beneficial in the long term – such a move seems politically unattainable. Instead, the EU’s approach to this ongoing crisis will be determined by its unity (or lack thereof) in common policy.
The Future Migration Policy of the EU
The success story of German Syrian refugees highlights the long-term potential of migration to strengthen the EU economy. However, political divisions make such policies politically problematic, as demonstrated by Germany itself, which recently restored control of all of its world borders in an effort to tighten immigration controls.
The newly launched EU Migration and Asylum Agreement proposes measures such as relocation, financial support or work in member states. This approach aims to meet humanitarian needs, but also allows Member States to protect their sovereignty and control.
However, it also calls the convergence of EU principles into question. In the words of the Council, “by facilitating the deployment of reception centers”, the EU can send forced and sometimes illegal migrants to non-EU countries.
Such measures also ignore what migration can offer a continent facing demographic challenges – migrants can fill gaps in labor markets, foster a culture of innovation, and provide a smaller tax base to support an aging population.
However, in order to produce such results the newly appointed Commission will not only have to overcome political opposition, but will also ensure that the policies it adopts allow for proper integration.
The EU Can Better Manage Migration
Several key policy measures could help Europe manage the looming migration crisis.
Expanding legal channels for migration – including resettlement programs, humanitarian visas, and flexible work permits for Lebanese – is key to reducing migrant pressures. In addition, improving the conditions of refugees by increasing financial and logistical assistance to Lebanon and its neighbors could help reduce the flow of migrants to Europe.
Improved communication between EU states – as difficult as it seems today – is also necessary to effectively balance border control and respect for humanitarian principles.
Finally, although integration programs should draw on successful models such as the German experience with Syrian refugees, the EU also needs to address the causes of instability through diplomacy and development initiatives. In particular, this means taking a strong nationalist stance against Israel, and generally overcoming the EU’s long-standing weakness and indecisiveness when dealing with its neighbors in the MENA region.
To quote one paper from 2010, the EU has long been a “payer not a player”. However, if this changes, the EU could prevent millions of people from becoming refugees in the first place.