I just learned from Condi Rice yesterday that my longtime Hoover Institution colleague and longtime friend Tom Moore has passed away. He died on August 23. He was 93 years old.
Tom was an economist. He wrote an article titled “Trucking Deregulation” on Fortune Encyclopedia of Economics1993, which later, after the rights returned to me, was The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics. Then, when I compiled the second edition of the The Concise Encyclopedia of EconomicsTom wrote a review titled “Degradation of Surface Transportation.”
Tom was one of the early abolitionists. At an anti-inflation conference held by President Ford in 1974, Tom issued a statement calling for deregulation of transportation, aviation, energy and other sectors. (I’m going from memory here. The copy he gave me was destroyed in a fire in my office in 2007.) As I recall, he got a bunch of economists, a group that included many Democrats and Republicans, to sign the statement. .
Tom also wrote, in the second edition of the Concise Encyclopedia, the article “Global Warming: A Balance Sheet.” I also read his piece as background for this post. I find comfort in how well some of his analyzes hold up nearly 20 years after he wrote them.
Here is the episode:
The media and many others have attributed to global warming everything that can happen, from climate change to mild, from heavy rain to drought, and from violent winter storms to fewer and weaker colds. But an examination of its potential consequences suggests little basis for that pessimistic view. According to the IPCC, global warming could make winters warmer than summers, cause more rain, and lead to higher temperatures at higher altitudes—that is, in already colder regions—than at the equator.
How will climate affect the economy? Climate mainly affects agriculture, forestry and fishing. In the United States, these three account for less than two percent of GDP. Manufacturing, many service industries, and almost all manufacturing industries are not directly affected by climate change. Factories can be built almost anywhere—northern Sweden or Canada, Texas, Central America, or Mexico. Banking, insurance, medical services, retail, education, and various other services can thrive in warm (air-conditioned) environments as well as in cold (central heating) environments. Warmer weather will lower transportation costs: less snow and ice will hurt truckers and motorists; several winter storms will disrupt flight operations; bad weather in summer has few disturbing effects and passes quickly; low incidence of storms and light fog will make the ship less dangerous. Higher temperatures will leave the mining and quarrying industries largely unaffected; north sea oil drilling and mountain mining may be profitable.
A few services, such as tourism, may be sensitive to weather conditions. Warmer weather is likely to change the nature and environment of recreational travel. Most ski resorts, for example, may experience unreliable cold weather and short seasons. Warmer conditions may also mean that fewer northerners feel the need to vacation in Florida or the Caribbean. At the same time, new travel opportunities may develop in Alaska, northern Canada, and elsewhere in the highlands or highlands. Short winters can benefit many outdoor activities, such as golf, hiking, tennis, and picnicking.
In many parts of the world, warmer weather should mean longer growing seasons. If the world were to warm, the warmer climate would enhance evaporation from the oceans and, most likely, cause more rain worldwide. In addition, enriching the atmosphere with CO2it would fertilize the plants, make them grow vigorously. The IPCC’s assessment of warming is that “a few degrees of hypothetical warming will lead to a general increase in temperate crop yields, with some regional variation” (IPCC 2001, p. 32). Bjørn Lomborg, a Danish ecologist and statistician, reported that if farmers adapt moderately, warming will increase grain production in rich countries by 4-14 percent, while cutting it in poor countries by 6-7 percent (2001, p. 288). The US Department of Agriculture, in a cautionary report, reviewed the possible impact of global warming and concluded that the overall effect on world food production would be slightly positive and, therefore, agricultural prices might decrease (Kane et al. 1991).
Global warming may melt glaciers and thus cause sea levels to rise, which may inundate low-lying regions, including several islands and estuaries. The IPCC maximum estimate for sea level rise by the year 2100 is three feet. Economists such as William Cline, William Nordhaus, and Richard Morgenstern, starting with this three-meter assumption, have estimated the cost of building dikes and levees and the loss of United States land at $7–$10.6 billion per year, or about 0.1 percent of America’s GDP. In some small island countries, the problems can be worse; in some cases they may even be completely submerged.
The whole piece is a must read, as are his two pieces on transportation deregulation.
Today or tomorrow, depending on my limited time, I will share, over on my Substack, my story of how I discovered Tom’s work in 1972. I will put the link here.
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