GDP under Bloomberg consensus of 3.0% to 2.8% (GDPNow is targeting). Private NFP ADP change at 233K vs. Bloomberg consensus is 110K.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) activity from CES (blue), mean NFP from the first benchmark (blue), employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in -Ch.2017$ (bright green), production and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink ), GDP (green bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q3 1st release, S&P Global Market Insights (with Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (10/1/2024), and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Nonfarm private employment from the BLS (blue), suggesting revisions to the first private NFP benchmark from the BLS (red), and ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab nonfarm employment (green), all by 000’s. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.
Remember, the ADP numbers are not based on research (so there are no issues regarding the model’s output of robust birth mortality, etc.).
Figure 3: The month-over-month growth rate of Private nonfarm payrolls from the BLS (blue), suggested by revisions to the first private NFP benchmark from the BLS (red), and ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab nonfarm payrolls (green) , and the Bloomberg consensus (light green square), all calculated using log differences. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
Contra EJ Antoni, Kevin Hassett, Larry Kudlow, Peter Thiel, and Wilbur Ross these don’t look like recessionary numbers to me. However, we get September’s personal income and consumer spending tomorrow, and August’s manufacturing and trade sales.
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