Georgia Election Update | bare capitalism

October 31, 2024 admin Finance 0

A quick recap before moving on to the current situation in Georgia.

There were five main parties competing in the October 26 parliamentary elections. Georgia Dream, a neoliberal party registered by one of the richest people in the country and not opposed to the West but in favor of strong relations with Russia and China, came first with 54 percent.

The four main opposition parties, all of whom favor the Western approach (and therefore reduce relations with Moscow and Beijing, if not become a tool of the West used against them) got a combined 38 percent.

Protests And What’s Next?

Paris-born President Salome Zourabichvili (and possibly a ghost) who has taken over as opposition leader continues to insist that the results were due to fraud and “special Russian work.” [1] They throw around a lot of accusations, including pointing to this graph as one of the key pieces of “evidence”:

Maybe I’m a little lacking in math-mathematics, but this seems like a complicated (and unsatisfying) flag to rally troops around. Of course, that would also be the point if there really isn’t any hard evidence of the widespread fraud they claim.

Zourabichvili called on supporters to gather on October 28. Despite the conflicting claims, the vote appeared to be respectable. AP said tens of thousands, JAM News called 100,000.

Barring some dramatic event, will it be sustainable and enough to make a big difference? Here’s some ground-breaking Georgia reporting that makes that argument:

Accordingly, TASS reported that Ukrainian-trained hackers came to Georgia to carry out clashes during mass protests, so there’s that. TASS, but it is worth noting the activities of the Georgian Legion, a group fighting in Ukraine made up of Georgian soldiers and police and foreign fighters. Both Moscow and Tbilisi began demobilizing the army earlier this year. Answer from Militarnyi:

The special services of Georgia, following the Russian authorities, put Georgian volunteers fighting on the side of Ukraine on the wanted list.

Mamuka Mamulashvili, commander of the Georgian National Legion fighting for Ukraine, told The Insider. According to him, about 300 people from the military unit he led were put on the wanted list in Georgia. Many of them are now in Ukraine.

If we look at the story of Militarnyi, these fighters seem to be watched closely when they return to Georgia. And there is not much appetite in Georgia to become another Ukraine:

Meanwhile, President Zourabichvili, who was the second counselor of the French Embassy in Chad during the coup led by Idriss Déby in Paris, does not seem to be so lucky:

However, he gets a little permission from the Georgia Attorney General’s Office:

The Prosecutor’s Office said that 47 criminal cases are being investigated for alleged crimes committed before and on the day of the election, including the facts of allegations of vote fraud, influencing the will of voters, violation of voting secrecy, vote buying, obstructing the work of journalists, violation of the law. and threats during pre-election violence, vandalism and vandalism. It also said that people related to the alleged crimes have been severely summoned for questioning.

Zourabichvili continues to call for more protests and US and EU support – although he has yet to ask former secretary of state Victoria Nuland to come hand out the cookies. The protest is the only way Georgians “can express that their votes have been stolen, and that their future has been stolen,” Zourabichvili told AP, adding that he hoped the US and EU would “return” the protests. How much support can they provide following the foreign agents law passed in the spring. That law requires independent organizations and journalists who earn more than twenty percent of the money in other countries to register regularly with the government.

Since the 1990s, Western NGOs have played a major role in Georgia, often filling the space that state power would have created, and giving Americans and Europeans control of the country. The reporting requirement for foreign-funded groups makes it difficult for US- and EU-backed organizations to influence votes or covertly orchestrate vote-changing efforts.

“We need strong support from our European partners, our American partners,” Zourabichvili said. Some opposition politicians are calling for new elections entirely overseen by foreign leaders and have vowed to boycott parliament until that happens, which seems unlikely.

Others want this “verification” of the vote in the same way:

Russia’s answer

The Kremlin has dismissed allegations of meddling. The Vice Chairman of the Federation Council, Andrey Klimov, said earlier this year that Russia is willing to help deal with threats to the Georgian Dream if Tbilisi makes such a request to Moscow.

The US response

Key quote: “We are not ruling out any further consequences if the direction of the Georgian government does not change.”

Considering Washington’s penchant for sanctions, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them implemented soon. Over the summer, the Biden administration imposed visa restrictions on a number of Georgia officials, froze $95 million in aid to Georgia, and is known to have prepared a package of sanctions in case. They include difficult steps:

In other news, Russiagate is the gift that keeps on giving:

The EU’s response

On Wednesday, EU leaders suspended Georgia’s accession process due to “the government’s divergence from EU principles.” The process was previously suspended depending on the results of the election.

Georgia must recommit to those terms in order for the process to start over.

You can read the European Commission’s second enlargement report here for a full list of alleged violations, but for now it’s clear what Brussels is after: Georgia must do as the West says about Moscow and Beijing.

Here’s European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen weighing in on the scene with proper Halloween-style lighting:

Victor Orbán of Hungary, who was the first foreign leader to congratulate the Georgian Dream, arrived on Monday for a two-day visit to Georgia, which caused an overwhelming reaction in Europe.

It’s the Economy, Stupid.

Conveniently overlooked in all the uproar about fraud and Russian “special political activity” is that the vote largely responded to economic considerations.

Western leaders may have a hard time admitting this to themselves, but in an us-or-or competition that insists on the other side it looks like an attractive option. As the IMF notes, economic growth is from the G-7 to the BRICS, which also currently respect the sovereignty of other countries. In the particular case of Georgia, Russia, China and other states of the region offer more than the West does. From Sopo Japaridze, who is well-followed on Twitter continuously in Georgia and writes the following for Jacobin:

President Zourabichvili said that while his campaign wants to speak to the wishes of the voters, the Georgian Dream relies on their “fear”, thus suggesting to the Western media that his approach will bring victory. Yet many Georgians are motivated more by anxiety: they worry about not losing what they have, rather than relying on Europe’s unfulfilled promises of prosperity.

But in this context, Georgia has successfully used its geographical position. Full non-compliance with sanctions against Russia has apparently helped boost its economy. By maintaining a state of neutrality, Georgia has emerged as an important trade hub for countries seeking to engage with Russia, which has led to an increase in business activities, especially in trade and commerce. GDP growth expected at 7.1 percent. As a result, the inflation rate in Georgia has decreased significantly to 0.6 percent from 2022, improving purchasing power.

The Georgian Dream is a neoliberal and billionaire-backed party, yet recently it has made a few steps forward compared to the last ten years of rule – and is more progressive in social issues than the previous government. They also established a minimum wage for health workers and doubled maternity wages by 2023. The last minimum wage was passed in 1999. While these changes may not be major, they highlight a shift in government priorities.

I have never seen anyone explain why the people of Georgia would want to give up those small advantages to help Western plutocrats in their fight against Russia.

Notes

[1] Zourabichvili enjoyed a three-decade career in diplomatic and defense positions in France, including second counselor of the French Embassy in Chad during the coup led by Idriss Déby. He was also director of International and Strategic Affairs at the Secretary General of National Defense and worked with NATO’s Bureau of Strategic Affairs. From 2003 to 2004 he was the ambassador of France to Georgia and then moved seamlessly to the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia after being appointed by the former President Mikhail Saakashvili, the young man who led Georgia in the disastrous war of 2008 against Russia. Zourabichvili has been active in Georgian politics ever since.

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