Conor here: A quote comes to mind.
“How many more of these smelly, double-edged sideshows are we going to have to go through before we can straighten ourselves out enough to put together some kind of general election that will give me and at least 20 million people I tend to agree with the opportunity to vote for something, instead of always being faced with that simple choice between the lesser of two evils ?”
-Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ’72
And the lesser of two evils—which includes whoever the practice is—often seems to get the greater evil.
Written by Thomas Neuburger. Originally published on Spies of God
I try not to comment too much on the election, but I will say this: Harris’s race is to lose, and he may lose it.
Why?
A Changed Election?
Some commentators think this is still a reform election – I am among them – and many voters are still sick of the billionaires running their lives. So what can those who want change do in this election? Democrats are still the party of “keeping things the same, only better.” There is no major change in that; or at least, not enough.
So what’s left to do? Voters who want change can either support an agent of chaos (which Trump definitely is) and completely disrupt the bandwagon, or they can stay home. Trump still has all his voters (see below), so the choice is Harris or stay home.
No strategy? Do not mention it. But angry people, for the most part, are not perfect strategies, and certainly a lot getting angry is not a strategy at all.
The stay-at-home strategy hurts Harris the most, since Trump, as I see it, increased his polls a long time ago – his peak remains close to 48% – while Harris still managed to increase his in the midst of insecurity. However, instead of gaining new votes, his growth has stagnated or slowed down. (See chart above.) Undecideds don’t deviate from his side, at least not in sufficient numbers. His campaign has stalled.
Working Class Voters
Trying to find out why Harris is standing, a study by the Center for Working-Class Politics, YouGov and Jacobin tested various messages with workers in Pennsylvania, which is a key state. They chose five that they found in his original campaign and two other methods, trying to see what worked best.
The actual messages tested (those based on his campaign) are:
- I Soft Populist message acknowledges that many businesses are job creators and play by the rules but calls out big corporations and Wall Street for raising prices and not paying their fair share of taxes.
- I Moderate Economics the message focuses on Harris’ economic vision of an “opportunity economy” that achieves broad-based growth and emphasizes tax cuts for middle-class Americans.
- I The Threat to Democracy the message asks voters to defend democracy and liberal values against the threat posed by Trump, highlighting his criminal convictions.
- I Protect Abortion message underscores Harris’s support for abortion rights against Republican proposals to end the statewide abortion ban, a position he says was given to Trump.
- I Immigration Matters message emphasizes Harris’ support for increasing border security while facilitating a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.
The messages are they weren’t there in his campaign are:
- I Strong Populist the message targets the economic elites to get rich while the working Americans suffer, it makes a big difference between the working class and the millionaire class, and it blames not only the economic elites and Trump (as in the Soft Populist message) but many supporters of Washington. politicians for leaving workers behind.
- I Progressive Economic the message outlines progressive economic positions, some of which Harris has endorsed but often fails to emphasize, and policies that are outside of the current campaign policy proposals. These policies include restoring American jobs, guaranteeing jobs for all job seekers, and expanding Medicare access to include young Americans who lack adequate health insurance.
Matt Karp summarizes the results. The solution is clear. Nonpartisan populism trumps all other messagesincluding partisan, anti-Trump populism; as well as The “threat to democracy” message is losing some voters.
Apparently people still hate billionaires. But Harris and his strategists insisted on the opposition’s message and the “threat to democracy.” For working class voters to be convinced that the system is (still) rigged, he doesn’t look like the answer.
Democracy is Under Threat
The failure of the message to threaten democracy should be noted. Trump has indeed let his strongman flag fly, proving to liberals that this threat is real. So why is this message not working with the working class?
The answer is explained by the discussion above, but other authors make it clearer. Working class people are the main national victims of billionaire greed. So what do you do? see See as a threat, Republicans or billionaires?
Here’s what Carl Beijer says: “‘Democracy is at risk’ messaging only works for democracy”. From the paid part of his episode:
I would argue … that “democracy is at risk” messages only work in a functioning democracy. And since most people don’t think of the US as a functioning democracy, most people don’t think it’s actually “at risk” in any meaningful sense.
He explains, referring to the survey mentioned above:
[W]When Democrats start going on about how Trump can stop elections or break free speech or launch all kinds of attacks on liberal democracy, many people just back off because they think they have nothing to lose.The advantage of this definition is that explain again[s] the popularity of the Strong Populist message – which, again, emphasizes that DC is actually responding to the powerful rather than the people. [emphasis mine]
So yes, people may believe that democracy is in danger. But maybe, maybe, they describe the problem as bipartisan, and Harris, in doing so much to “take billions” (to quote a once-loved person), fails to look like the answer.
Well, we’ll soon find out what worked and what didn’t. But the “accommodate Dick Cheney and comfort the rich” approach would be too much for him.
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