Based on the October ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series.
Figure 1: Private non-farm employment (bold black), now based on error correction model using ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series (blue), +/- 1 standard error bars (gray), Bloomberg consensus from 10 /31 (red square), all in 000’s, sa Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.
The ECM used is estimated over 2021M07-2024M09, and has an adjusted R2 of 0.67, SER of 0.002. Applying a simple regression of the first difference of the BLS log on the contemporaneous ADP series produces a nowcast that is almost identical.
Note that this is a mechanical nowcast, based only on past BLS data and ADP data. There are no statistics on strikes and storms. Goldman Sachs (Walker/Rindels) comments:
ADP’s measure of employment growth has historically been less sensitive to natural disasters and Homebase’s data may miss the impact of current strikes because its sample is primarily made up of owner-operated food and beverage, retail, and service businesses.
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