The conversion, seen last month. Why? A small movement is given vaguely on state ballots.
I would expect these odds to be the same, very close, but they are not. Liquidity?
Polymarket is very remote (separated from US participants?). The RealClearPolitics estimate does not include PredictIt (or Kalshi).
538’s prediction over time. The green line marks start from the last month of data.
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