From a new and very interesting website on that topic:
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Major Increase in Cause Claims: The average ratio of cause claims to papers has increased significantly from about 5% in 1990 to about 28% in 2020, reflecting the impact of the economic fiduciary revolution.
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The Growth of Causal Approaches again a descent into Theoretical and Simulation Methods…
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Complex Causal Narratives Improve Publication and Citation Impact: Papers with complex and interconnected narratives are more likely to be published in high-quality journals, especially top 5 journals, and receive more citations, especially in those journals.
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Key Steps to the Difficulty of a Causal Narrative: An increase in the number of unique paths and the length of the longest path in causal knowledge graphs is positively associated with both publications in leading economic journals and high citation counts. This highlights the value placed on depth and complexity in causal issues.
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Depth of Number of Causal Claims: Although the total number of claims made is positively correlated with publication in top journals, the number of causal edges alone does not show the same positive correlation with publication outcomes or citation counts. This suggests that depth of scope in causal claims is important...
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Novel Causal Relations Improve Publication But Not Citation Impact: Papers presenting novel causal relationships that have not been documented before are more likely to be published in the top 5 journals, indicating an originality premium for publication success. However, this does not necessarily mean a higher citation count once published.
Here’s a related tweet storm,
Obviously it can be argued either way, but I see these results as more negative of causality change than consent? There seems to be more emphasis on generating defensible results from previously untapped data sets. I understand the sign value here, but the social value isn’t always obvious. I am amazed how often I meet economics graduate students who can discuss planning more effectively than they can think of in the real world.
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