That’s Jeffrey Tucker at the Epoch Times about ZeroHedge.
It is a reasonable assumption that the recession will be obvious to all by next summer. It will be announced at the end of the year. Next year there may be a data update that takes us to 2022. At that time, it will be clear to people that we have a big problem. The velocity of money will freeze, and banks will begin to fail.
It is possible. Of course I have Mr. Tucker that a recession could happen. He believes that eventually we will update the data like that.
It does not appear in our time that we are already weak, but that is due to some weak mathematical measures. If you expand the inflation numbers to include housing and interest, plus premiums and inflation, subtract the hedonic changes, and adjust the output numbers accordingly, you end up in a recession now.
I think Mr. Tucker submits the thesis of Antoni and St. Onge (2024), published in his journal. However, as I have noted (and Chinn (2024)), it is almost impossible to produce such results. In this updated graph, I show how much the current BEA ratings differ from Antoni-St. Onge’s number, and what I’m finding is trying to figure out housing costs using housing prices and housing costs.
Figure 1: BEA GDP (orange), GDP including PCE using the Case-Shiller House Price Index – national mortgage rate factor index, using a BEA weight of 15% (green), using 30% (dark green), Antoni-St. Onge estimate (red square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Source: BEA, S&P Dow Jones, Fannie Mae via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Matching the Antoni-St. Onge level of GDP for 2024Q2, BEA’s GDP level will have to be revised downwards 15.3% (log conditions)! I think it’s safe to say that such a major revision has never happened in modern history. For example the downward revision from April 2001 to July 2002 – which made the recession look worse – was about 2.5%.
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