Robert Kiyosaki is a financial writer with solid advice when it comes to the basics of personal finance. His book, “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” is a leading guide on topics such as saving and investing.
But when it comes to predicting market crashes, following his advice instead of sticking to long-term strategies would have made you miss out on huge gains.
As recently as August 2, 2024, Kiyosaki said this to X: “As many have warned….the stock market crash is here. The loss is great.”
Since August, the S&P 500 is up about 15%.
Here are 5 more times Kiyosaki missed the mark in calling a market crash.
1. Stocks, gold, silver, crypto will crash: 2021
On September 26, 2021, Kiyosaki tweeted that a “big” stock market crash was coming that October. He recommended gold, silver and crypto.
Here’s how those market sectors performed in the 12 months following Kiyosaki’s prediction:
| Investment sector | Full refund for 12 months |
| S&P 500 | -17.6% |
| Gold | -7.6% |
| Silver | -19.1% |
| Bitcoin | -55.5% |
No disruption occurred in October 2021. The stock market went down the following year, but silver and bitcoin went down significantly.
2. All markets will crash: 2022
On September 27, 2022, on Twitter, Kiyosaki returned to his vision of the coming “crash of everything”. In it, everything – stocks, real estate, crypto – will decrease in value.
Those sectors saw positive gains in the following 12 months after Kiyosaki’s prediction. In general, the markets grew during this period.
| Investment sector | Full refund for 12 months |
| S&P 500 | 16.99% |
| Gold | 16.6% |
| Silver | 23.9% |
| Bitcoin | 36.4% |
Kiyosaki’s tweet – almost a year before Israel and Hamas started fighting again – warns that foreign wars will cause further collapse. His other warning signs include rising interest rates and avoiding risky assets only because they hurt the US dollar.
3. Stocks to crash: 2020
Kiyosaki predicted that the stock market crash related to the COVID-19 pandemic was on the rise in an April 17, 2020, tweet.
Stock market values were actually about to improve – the S&P 500 gained 53.3% in the 12 months after his wrong prediction. Here’s how other sectors performed at the same time in 2020 and 2021:
| Investment sector | Full refund for 12 months |
| S&P 500 | 53.3% |
| Gold | 7.8% |
| Silver | 67.6% |
| Bitcoin | 798.1% |
Kiyosaki did not recommend an alternative to the stock at the time.
4. Real estate will crash: 2017
Southern California real estate has been gaining in value for five years, so perhaps Kiyosaki thought that meant the Housing Select Sector (XLRE) would crash as well.
Citing a tweet from ZeroHedge, a financial blog, Kiyosaki tweeted on July 30, 2017, that soon there will be “another” housing crash. This is not a direct reference to the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008, but it is obviously covered.
Evidence that the tweet was over came in the form of rising market prices across Southern California:
| Investment sector | Full refund for 12 months |
| S&P 500 | 14.0% |
| Real estate | 4.9% |
| National Case-Shiller Home Value Index | 5.7% |
Home prices in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area actually rose slightly after Kiyosaki’s tweet. Just before the COVID-19 pandemic, this slice of Southern California sat at 329.29 on the Federal Reserve’s home price index. The site has surpassed this mark every quarter since then.
5. Stocks to crash: 2015
1, 2015, that he had predicted in early 2002 that the stock market would crash sometime in 2016.
He didn’t say a percentage, but the S&P 500 falling from about 2,050 to about as low as 1,800 looks like a crash. But it was not that important. A decline within 15% of the recent high is a typical market correction. In fact, 2016 saw the S&P 500 rise 9.5% over that period.
These are the 5 times Kiyosaki called an accident that never happened. But it’s not just the times. See this article from US News for more examples.
The bottom line? You can look to this guy as a solid source of basic financial advice, but he certainly doesn’t get high marks as a market timer.
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