Republican presidential candidates including Donald Trump are making bold promises about immigration, such as, “on On day one, I will introduce the largest deportation program in American history to take out criminals.”
That may sound unfair, but some workers – including US citizens – may want to think twice before celebrating these plans.
“Mass deportations could exacerbate ongoing US labor shortages, especially in industries that rely heavily on undocumented immigrant workers,” Nan Wu, research director of the American Immigration Council (AIC), said in a statement. “It is estimated that US GDP will decline by $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion over a decade under mass deportations.”
Even if there is an administration or political party that can eliminate mass deportations, experts and labor experts say that simply deporting any immigrant workers who are already in the US would cause many problems for the economy.
1. Cheap (but illegal) work can end
Just over a quarter of the estimated 11 million immigrants in the US are suspected of being undocumented (illegal) workers, according to the Economic Policy Institute.
A skills-based immigration policy would require “stronger immigration laws that prevent people from working illegally,” a policy statement from the conservative think tank American Compass says.
The brief recommends mandatory, statewide use of the E-Verify system by employers and stiffer penalties for undocumented workers who violate immigration laws. One of the biggest concerns for businesses is that they can use undocumented applicants to destroy jobs and wages for American workers.
2. Multiple job openings are possible
As a source of cheap and illegal labor, undocumented immigrants play a major role in how the economy functions. In fact, they are good for many businesses where American workers can’t (or won’t) meet the demand, and firing them would only make that worse.
“Are we pulling talent from one place to another, but someone else loses it,” said Jason Leverant, president and COO of AtWork Group, a national franchise-based staffing agency, in a statement to CNBC.
The construction industry, for example, is short about 250,000 workers, according to Wu. He notes that 14% of construction workers in the US are believed to be undocumented immigrants.
Mass deportations will directly affect many immigrants and the other workers they replace — and indirectly affect consumers who have to pick up the bill for higher costs.
3. It may be difficult to find someone to hire for low skills
Immigrants are part of the construction industry, according to immigrant groups.
They are also an important part of the agricultural industry. An estimated 30% to 40% of domestic farm workers are undocumented immigrants, according to multiple sources including the US Department of Agriculture. CNN also noted that immigrants make up more than 60% of the workforce in the dairy industry.
Also, the AIC explains that immigrants comprise a large percentage of US tourism industry workers, child care industry workers, laundry workers, and meat, poultry and fish processing workers.
4. It may be difficult to find someone to hire for high-skilled jobs
Higher education prepares US students to fill careers in many fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) – higher education careers such as engineering, medical sciences, artificial intelligence, economics, physics and more.
But, as noted by EPI staff and university presidents, the US is not producing enough educated workers to keep up with the demand for economic growth.
Despite statistics showing that American-born students are increasing their pursuit of higher education, immigration restrictions continue to make it difficult for skilled workers to come to America. This is bad news for institutions like universities, as they reduce the number of international students.
5. The number of American companies outsourcing jobs may continue to grow
Regarding employment restrictions on undocumented immigrants, there has been a trend of American companies outsourcing their jobs.
As the US faces problems with how many workers to bring in, immigration restrictions remain an opportunity for places like the UK, Canada and Australia, which have more liberal immigration laws.
Spain recently revamped its immigration policy to allow skilled workers and business opportunities to enter legally. Germany made an agreement with Mexico to hire nurses to work and live there. And Canada is looking to recruit African engineers and US university graduates.
The US Chamber of Commerce wrote in the summer of 2023 that the outflow of foreign talent and the outsourcing of business will negatively affect the US economy, as it allows the discovery of new and important science and technology to take place elsewhere.
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