From the NYT:
China launched two days of military exercises around Taiwan on Thursday in what it called “stern punishment” for its opponents on the self-governing island, after Taiwan’s new president vowed to defend its sovereignty.
Map from the article:
Here is the state of the US Navy, as of May 20, 2024.
Source: USNI FleetTracker, accessed 23 May 24.
Caldara and Iacoviello monthly GPR index for Taiwan (through April):
Source: Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) index.
The presidential election was in January. May be limited not included.
Blackrock has its own directory, but the last publication was last month.
Source: BlackRock, 25 April 2024.
Assessment of high risk market impacts:
Source: BlackRock, 25 April 2024.
Unfortunately, due to the absence of regular GPRs (as we have in the world, from Caldara and Iacoviello), we will have to wait until next month to find out the impact on the estimated risk.
As discussed in this post, deterrence is more feasible than direct attack (at least in the near future), while serving the purpose of causing more economic damage.
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