As the pundit classes have been fed up with the consequences of Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 charges in New York, the Biden Administration has authorized the crossing of Russia’s biggest red line, that of using US (and other foreign) weapons to strike targets in Russia. The New York Times version of the decision:
The decision by the Biden administration to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with American-made weapons fulfills a long-standing desire of officials in Kyiv who say it is important to level the playing field.
.
The change in policy followed announcements from nearly a dozen European and Canadian governments that their weapons could be used against Russia.Freed from those constraints, Ukraine could attack Russia with SCALP missiles from France and, possibly soon, the same Storm Shadow missiles supplied by Britain. Although the British foreign minister, David Cameron, said on May 3 that Ukraine should be able to attack Russia with Western weapons, London has not yet given its full approval…
The SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles have a range of 150 kilometers and are fired from old Ukrainian Soviet-designed warplanes.
Several countries – Britain, Germany, Norway and the United States – have provided Ukraine with ground-based missiles that can fire long-range missiles. Those systems are known as HIMARS and MLRS launchers, and can fire American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, with a range of up to 190 miles.
However, when unveiling the new policy, US officials said their policy would not allow the use of ATACMS or long-range ballistic missiles that could strike deep into Russia. Germany has also so far refused to give up its Taurus missile, which has a range of 310 kilometers, partly out of concern that it would be fired deep into Russia and escalate the war. Now there is very little chance of doing that, said Rafael Loss, an arms expert at the Council of Europe on foreign relations, in an interview on Thursday.
Additionally, Britain, Canada and the United States have provided Ukraine with medium-range missiles or small land-based bombs that can reach Russia from 50 to 90 miles.
But the new authorization could have an even bigger impact on the battle for air superiority — especially if the allies allow their donated jets and drones to attack inside Russian airspace.On Friday, the Dutch foreign minister said Ukraine could use 24 F-16 fighter jets that the Netherlands has promised to fly over Russian territory on a military mission.
And from a Politico exclusive, Biden secretly gave Ukraine permission to bombard Russia with US weapons (note that the Times does not credit Politico and Politico unusually has this story below the fold):
The Biden administration quietly gave Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia – only near the Kharkiv area – using weapons provided by the US, three US officials and two other people familiar with the move said on Thursday, a major change that will help Ukraine better defend itself. its second largest city.
If I were sarcastic, I would see this as an excuse for something similar elsewhere. Putin said Russia has no immediate plans for Kharkiv. Kharkiv is a big full city. Taking it will require a lot of resources. Zelensky, however, seems to have devoted much of his dwindling resources to defending it, where Russia would be better served than it is now if it wants to advance in Ukraine, saying it would cut off more supply lines. If Russia wanted to increase the intensity of the war and accelerate the escalation, the most obvious way would be to extend the front by moving forces to Sumy. Russia may have planned to do just that but is now holding back to see how NATO’s latest episode plays out.
Remember that you are pretending that these are Ukrainian weapons somehow because they were allocated to Ukraine for Canadian use. Ukraine depends on its Western allies for information. Many experts believe that even surgery is done more if not by the little blue men from the Collective West. These are complex systems and it is impossible for the Ukrainian military to be trained to deploy them independently. Putin addressed the issue at length in an interview earlier this week, suggesting that NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg must have had dementia to suggest otherwise. He also warned that the move could cause “global conflict” as Russia could respond by attacking US military assets in other theaters.
I don’t know what the US is trying to achieve by playing this pregnant game. On the other hand, Russia managed to shoot down most of the long-range missiles thrown at it. For example, Alexander Mercouris yesterday cited a new report from the Ministry of Defense that Ukraine shot down 8 ATACMS missiles in Crimea and Russia shot them all down. That doesn’t mean there wasn’t collateral damage from falling missiles or anti-aircraft missiles. And as Mercouris likes to emphasize, this is a game of mistakes, with missiles that like to miss every so often.
On the other hand, the Times included Dutch F-16s in its list of weapons. That should actually inspire the Russians as an empty threat. Scott Ritter said that any pilot who flew into Russia had a 20% chance of returning alive. They will be discovered almost as soon as they take off and be targeted hard. The F-16s also needed golf green escapees to take off. Ukraine does not have advanced ones and Russia will quickly strike any airstrips that Ukraine manages to get up to the required level. That then leads to the next issue, where Russia has said that any country that starts attacking Russia, and that would include allowing Ukrainian F-16s to take off from airfields in Poland or Romania, will put that country at war with Russia. and depends on returning strikes. It does not appear that Romania or Poland have decided to go there yet.
On the other hand, if NATO members pretending to be Ukraine strike something not insignificant against Russia, and the chances of that happening, then what does Russia do? Although some have criticized Russia’s patience as a sign of weakness, I would hazard a guess that Russia, along with many of its allies, see the US as being driven by naive narcissists who pretend that nuclear war is no big deal. Admittedly, Aurelian in his must-read Phantom Armies NATO’s Phantom Armies explained at length that NATO cannot put any kind of rational action against Russia even if it could come out of its own underwear (although Auerlien did not consider it a very attractive ” alliance But the western powers are still woefully short of manpower and weapons.
A general military escalation is therefore self-limiting even if attempted. Nuclear war is a threat, says the US is pulling a submarine to the east coast of Russia and thinks it would be a good idea to put a tactical nuke in Siberia. This group is small enough to do that.
I don’t think Russia will need to act unless one of these newly authorized weapons does real damage to Russia. The failed attempts work to Russia’s advantage even if they are fearmongering. But if the West were to attack, Russia’s best move, despite being content to make a tit-for-tat response and hit NATO targets, would be to greatly accelerate its destruction of the Ukrainian electrical system. Russia probably now has many varieties made. Destroying most of the grid now will make many military operations more difficult, and will increase the flow of refugees to Europe, which will not particularly please the citizens of Poland.
Needless to say, at this point, all we can do is speculate about another dangerous escalation that (not assuming nuclear war) will change the outcome of the war. So keep checking what’s going on.
_______
1 From the Kremlin website:
As for the strikes, actually, I’m not sure what the Secretary General of NATO is talking about. When he was Prime Minister of Norway, we communicated and talked about challenging issues related to the Barents Sea and other issues, and generally, we were able to agree, and I am sure that he was not suffering from dementia at that time. If he talks about the possibility of attacking Russian territory with long-range missiles, he, as a person in charge of a political organization, even though he is a citizen like me, should be aware that long-range weapons are accurate. cannot be used without location-based testing. This is my first point.
My second point is that the final selection of the target and what is known as the implementation campaign can only be done by highly skilled professionals who rely on this test data, technical test data. In some attack systems, such as Storm Shadow, these launchers can be installed automatically, without the need to use the Ukrainian military. Who does it? Those who manufacture and allegedly supply these attack systems to Ukraine do. This is possible and is happening without the participation of the Ukrainian military. Launching other systems, such as ATACMS, for example, also relies on space intelligence, targets are identified and automatically relayed to relevant personnel who may not even be aware of what they are actually entering. A team, maybe even a Ukrainian team, at that time. includes a complementary presentation function. However, this operation is coordinated by representatives of NATO countries, not the Ukrainian military.
Therefore, these officials from NATO countries, especially those based in Europe, especially from small European countries, should be fully aware of what is at stake. They should remember that their countries are small and have many people, which should be considered before they start talking about attacking deep into Russian territory. It is a serious matter and, without a doubt, we are looking at this very carefully.
The focus is on development on the outskirts of Kharkov. But they were the ones who would trigger those events. I made it very clear publicly, I think it was six months ago, that if they continue to target settlements, we will have to build a safe zone. Not long ago, we started doing what I said then….
Do they want a world war? I think they wanted to agree on strategic weapons, but we don’t really see that they really want that. They talk about it but do nothing to make it happen. We will wait and see what happens next.
Source link